The Kentucky Derby is one of the most anticipated events in horse racing, drawing millions of fans and bettors alike every year.
But when it comes to betting, there’s always the question of which strategy to employ. Should you place your money on a favorite with short odds or a longshot promising life-changing returns?
This article will unpack the pros and cons of betting on favorites versus longshots and what that means for your betting strategy.
Introduction to Betting on the Kentucky Derby
Online betting for Kentucky Derby wagers can be both thrilling and overwhelming. With up to 20 of the top horses competing, there’s no shortage of options when it comes to selecting your favorites – and there’s also no shortage of choices when it comes to which types of bets you choose.
Derby bets range from straightforward win, place, and show wagers to exotic bets like exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. The stakes are high, and understanding your options can mean the difference between walking away with a profit or an empty wallet.
But before placing any bets, it’s essential to weigh the risk and reward balance between favorites and longshots. Favorites offer consistency and better odds of a payout, while longshots come with the possibility of massive windfalls at significantly higher risk.
Why Favorites Are the Safer Choice
Favorites are regarded as the safest bets in horse racing, and for good reason. They are typically horses that have demonstrated consistent performance, have strong pedigrees, or come with highly experienced trainers and jockeys.
The Odds Are in Their Favor
Favorites have won the Kentucky Derby around 35% of the time since its inception, which, compared to other racing meets, is a relatively high success rate. For comparison, the average favorite in most horse races across the United States only wins about 30% of the time.
In the 2024 Kentucky Derby, the favorites included high-performing horses with strong track records. Bettors who wagered on Mystik Dan, a relatively well-supported contender, walked away with profits when he secured a narrow victory.
Consistent Returns
Although payouts for favorites aren’t typically massive, they are reliable. If your goal is to minimize risk and maximize consistency, betting on a favorite might be your best option. For example, a favorite with 3-1 odds would yield $8 on a $2 win bet, including your initial stake. While not groundbreaking, this kind of betting approach allows for steady gains.
Predictive Data Plays a Role
Savvy betting on favorites often benefits from exploring a wealth of horse racing insights, including past performance data, jockey expertise, and trainer reputation. Research makes it easier for bettors to make informed decisions based on reliable information.
Do Longshots Ever Pay Off?
Longshots, referring to any horse with high odds of winning are risky,but they fuel high-stakes excitement at the Kentucky Derby. The appeal? Longshots offer massive payouts if they defy expectations.
Legendary Longshot Wins
Longshot victories aren’t common, but when they happen, the payout can be life-changing. One of the most famous examples is Rich Strike’s shocking 2022 Kentucky Derby win. Standing at 80-1 odds, Rich Strike’s victory yielded a whopping $163.60 for a $2 win bet.
Such examples are rare but demonstrate the allure of betting on longshots. These moments capture the magic and unpredictability that make the Kentucky Derby one of the most exciting events to bet on.
High Risk, High Reward
While favorites win more consistently, the chance of scoring big makes longshots appealing to many bettors. With odds often upwards of 30-1 or more, even a small wager could result in substantial gains. For instance, a superfecta bet involving multiple longshots could turn a $1 bet into a payout exceeding $100,000.
When to Bet on Longshots
Longshots aren’t for the risk-averse, but there are scenarios where betting on them makes sense:
- Unpredictable Race Conditions: Wet tracks or extreme weather can level the playing field, improving a longshot’s chances,
- Late-Blooming Contenders: Horses with limited race experience or rapid improvement leading up to the Derby may outperform expectations,
- Pari-mutuel Odds: Since Kentucky Derby odds fluctuate based on betting activity, a slightly favored horse early in the betting pool could become a high-value longshot closer to race time.
Factors to Consider in Your Betting Strategy
Analyzing Horse Racing News and Data
Stay up to date with the latest horse racing news to spot trends and gather insights on contenders. Familiarize yourself with factors such as recent race performances, jockey changes, and pre-race training updates.
For instance, as reflected in FanDuel’s online betting for the Kentucky Derby, preseason odds for horses often shift leading up to the event, making it essential to adapt your betting strategy accordingly.
Understanding Odds Types
Odds tell a story. For example:
- Favorites: Odds below 5-1 indicate widespread confidence in the horse’s capabilities,
- Longshots: Odds above 30-1 usually reflect lower performance consistency or relative anonymity.
Diversifying Bets
Rather than focusing solely on a favorite or a longshot, mixing your wagers can balance risk and reward. For example:
- Place a modest win bet on a favorite.
- Add an exacta or trifecta bet featuring both a favorite and a longshot to increase your chances of a higher payout.
Exotic Wager Opportunities
If you’re looking for bigger payouts, consider exotic wagers like trifectas or superfectas. These bets involve predicting the order of finish for two or more horses. While challenging, combining longshots with favorites in these bets offers opportunities for significant returns.
The Big Takeaway
Deciding between betting on favorites or longshots ultimately depends on your risk appetite. Favorites offer consistency and measurable probabilities based on performance data, but their payouts are modest. Longshots, while less predictable, provide an undeniable allure with the potential for extraordinary rewards.
To strike the right balance, adopt a flexible strategy by researching horse racing insights, monitoring odds, and diversifying your bets. Remember, the Kentucky Derby is as much about enjoying the spectacle as it is about the thrill of betting.
Whether you play it safe or shoot for an upset, every bettor has a shot at sharing in the excitement. After all, in the Kentucky Derby, anything can happen.
