How many lives does the flu, the summer heat or Covid-19 take in Switzerland? The Federal Statistical Office’s mortality monitoring provides the answers.
Currently more deaths than a severe flu episode
Range of statistically expected and occurring deaths among people over the age of 65 in Switzerland
The corona pandemic in Switzerland has been killing people since the beginning of March. From the twelfth calendar week (from March 16 to March 22), the deadly trace of Sars-CoV-2 can also be demonstrated in the national mortality statistics (see graphic). According to the Federal Statistical Office (BfS), 28 more deaths were registered this week than would have been expected based on many years of experience.
According to the latest BfS figures, this “over-mortality” has increased further in recent weeks: by 173 and 411 deaths in weeks 13 and 14 (until April 5). According to provisional results from the BfS, the number of unexpected deaths should not have increased further. Statisticians can only document documented mortality rates for people over 65 years of age. In younger people, the few Covid 19 deaths are lost in the vagueness of the statistics.
Changes in the population are taken into account
The calculation of the statistically expected deaths does not correspond to a simple average but also takes into account changes in the population from year to year (age structure) as well as random fluctuations. For example, the BfS would have expected 1065 to 1240 deaths among the over 65-year-olds for week 14. 1,651 seniors died this week, an increase of 411 of the maximum expected deaths.
Without such mortality monitoring, which compares the observed death numbers with the expected numbers, causes of death such as flu or Covid-19 would be slightly underestimated or overestimated. Because especially older people with various basic conditions can die because of or with an infectious agent like the new coronavirus.
Also, for the cause of death statistics, the doctor must select a single disease that has led to the patient’s death. According to the rules of the World Health Organization, this is the underlying disease (e.g. cancer) that is at the beginning of the course of the disease and not the last event (e.g. pneumonia such as Covid-19) that ultimately led to death.
