Analysts of the American independent research center RAND, on the occasion of the upcoming anniversary of the beginning of large-scale Russian aggression in Ukraine, organized an online discussion with the participation of journalists, during which, in particular, they made predictions about the prospects for the end of the war.
Dara Massikot, a senior RAND expert who analyzes Russia’s and Ukraine’s military capabilities, believes that no further breakthrough of the Ukrainian army on the frontline should be expected in the near future:
“Given that the Russian army has currently created a network of defensive positions, deep trenches and many minefields in eastern Ukraine, I think it will be very difficult for the Ukrainians to drive them out completely. of all the occupied territories. Nor do I see the Zelenskyy government sitting down at the negotiating table with the Russians and accepting the slightest territorial concession. Therefore, I don’t know what stage we are at now and if this will lead to a temporary freeze in the conflict. But I see a military reality, and a political reality, and these two realities do not coincide at the moment. When the Ukrainians launched their counteroffensive in Kherson, they attacked very weak and scattered Russian units. Now, I don’t see the same situation there. The front line tightens over time. The fights are localized to certain places. I think it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to make such a breakthrough. However, I do not exclude such a possibility. The command treats Russian soldiers in Ukraine very badly. The situation is therefore ambiguous.
Former US Ambassador to Russia John Tefft also agrees with Massicot. The expert also warns against any truce or ceasefire agreement with Russia.
“Putin is stubborn. He won’t make any concessions, or only make one at the very last minute if there’s strong domestic political pressure on him, Tefft says. – This deserves reflection: what could the negotiations look like? But military realities, Putin’s determination, Ukraine’s determination to continue the fight do not bode well. I am also concerned about the possibility of a ceasefire or a truce. I was ambassador to Georgia in 2008, and everyone remembers that first the French president, then Condoleezza Rice, came, then a ceasefire agreement was reached, but the Russians didn’t nothing of what had been decided within the framework of this agreement. I am therefore very skeptical about such negotiations with the Russians. Perhaps we are waiting for a frozen conflict. But I don’t think Ukrainians want that. They will continue the counter-offensive, despite all the difficulties.
RAND Vice President Barry Pavel predicts fierce fighting on the front lines over the next two to three months:
“I think we will see some very intense fights. This whole situation is unpredictable. But I think we will see a lot of hard fights in the next 2-3 months. But then, I think it will freeze the conflict. In addition, it is important to consider industrial warfare. Ukraine’s western allies are producing and supplying Ukraine with what it needs faster than Russia can supply itself with weapons or with the help of Iranians or other suppliers who provide it with weapons. drones. However, the ability of the Russian people to endure suffering should not be underestimated. The Russians know how to do this better than any other people on earth in all centuries of history. And therefore, I don’t think Putin and the Russian leadership will be in a more vulnerable position because of the sanctions and other restrictions that the West has imposed on them.
