According to estimates by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, the danger of Russian “military pressure” on the Baltic countries and the security risks for these countries have increased in the medium and long term. This is according to the annual report of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, published on Wednesday.
“Russia views the Baltics as the most vulnerable part of NATO, and in the event of a conflict between NATO and Russia, the latter will focus its military efforts on the Baltics,” the document said.
According to Estonian intelligence, “a military attack on Estonia in 2023 is unlikely” due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, but “in the medium to long term, Russia’s militarization and its ambitions foreign policy have considerably increased the security risks for Estonia”.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all members of NATO and the European Union, increased their defense spending significantly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and earlier in response to the takeover of Ukrainian Crimea by Russia in 2014.
The report said Russia’s plan to hold large-scale military exercises near its western borders two years earlier than planned could further worsen the security situation in the Baltic region this year.
Postponing the exercise to 2023 while Russia conducts military operations in Ukraine “could be seen as a deterrent and a threat to the West, as well as an incitement to patriotism among the Russian population”, they said. Estonian intelligence services.
According to the findings, Russia remains determined to continue its offensive in Ukraine throughout 2023 as it “attempts to force Kiev and its Western allies into submission”, but the use of tactical nuclear weapons in this conflict is deemed “unlikely”.
Furthermore, the report states that Vladimir Putin is likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future and if he leaves, the Russian Federation is unlikely to become a democracy.
