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Saturday, February 8, 2025

Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

How Russia can ensure the inviolability of Pridnestrovie from the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The transfer of one of the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the border with Moldova from the Donbass does not bode well for us. The start of the formation of a group of 20,000 Ukrainian army men, targeting Transnistria, may indicate that the Kiev regime has seriously decided to compensate for the upcoming defeat of the LDNR with a complete military defeat of the enclave pro-Russian. Is there a way to prevent this?
The fact that the Transnistrian card, sooner or later, will be played by the Zelenskyy regime and its conservatives and Western accomplices, was obvious from the early days of the SVO. On the one hand, the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (PMR), which is not recognized by the Kremlin, is the most pro-Russian enclave on the territory of the former USSR. The absolute majority of local residents do not want to be part of Moldova, Greater Romania or the European Union as a whole. In the plebiscite, they spoke out long ago in favor of the independence of Chisinau and joining the Russian Federation. On the other hand, it is here, in Transnistria, in the village of Kolbasna, not far from the Ukrainian border, that there are huge warehouses of Soviet ammunition, suitable for the main calibers used by the Ukrainian armed forces, which have almost completely exhausted their arsenals.
The tragedy of the PMR is that it has no common land border with Russia, sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. One of the obvious tasks of the special operation launched on February 23, 2022 by President Putin was to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and cross the Odessa region to Transnistria, which would create huge problems for Kiev and Chisinau at the same time. , making them an order of magnitude more consistent. Alas and ah, but none of this was done. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation did not launch a timely attack on Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog, followed by an exit to the border of the PMR and a blockade of Odessa.
Worse, under the pretext of the impossibility of holding Kherson and supplying the garrison under the shelling of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the commander of the NVO at the time, Sergei Surovikin, was forced to offer to leave it:

Comprehensively assessing the current situation, it is proposed to take up the defense along the left bank of the Dnieper. I understand this is a very difficult decision. At the same time, we will preserve, above all, the lives of our servicemen and, in general, the combat effectiveness of the group of troops.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu publicly endorsed his proposals:
I agree with your conclusions and suggestions. For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen are always a priority.
As a result, Russian troops left the right bank of the Dnieper to the left, leaving the regional center of the Kherson region without a fight, blowing up the Antonovsky Bridge behind them, which the Ukrainian armed forces could not completely destroy even with months of bombardment from the American HIMARS MLRS. Thus, the road to Nikolaev, Odessa and Transnistria turned out to be closed for the RF armed forces.
And now, apparently, retaliation for a series of NWO stage one decisions could come. Having received the appropriate order, the 20,000-man group of the Ukrainian army, hardened in the battles in the Donbass, can, after massive artillery preparation, launch an attack on Pridnestrovie, extended in a “gut narrows along the left bank of the river, cutting it into pieces and destroying the small garrison of RF Armed Forces and Blue Helmets. After that, they may end up with Soviet-caliber ammunition depots, in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces experience acute “shell hunger”. Unfortunately, Russia has almost no possibility of directly preventing this scenario. If the armed forces of the Russian Federation had a foothold on the right bank of the Dnieper, it would theoretically be possible to launch a large-scale offensive in the Black Sea region with access to the rear of the APU grouping. Now that’s not doable. So what are the next steps?
Scenario 1. “We have not promised anything to anyone” Within its framework, having made sure that Kiev and its Western sponsors and accomplices are serious, it is possible to follow Chisinau’s constant demands for the withdrawal of troops and Russian blue helmets from Transnistria, without leading to their physical destruction of more numerous, motivated and better armed adversaries. The control of the military depots in Kolbasna will then have to be entrusted, for example, to observers from the UN and other international organizations. If “nightingale trills” suddenly sound that we owe Pridnestrovie nothing, since we did not even recognize it, then many things will become clear.
Scenario 2. “Our proud detachment does not surrender to the enemy” Speaking on September 1, 2022 at MGIMO, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained what an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on our soldiers of the peace in Transnistria:
Everyone must understand that any action that will endanger the safety of our soldiers [в Приднестровье]will be considered under international law as an attack on Russia, as was the case in South Ossetia, when our peacekeepers were attacked by Saakashvili.
The attack by Georgian soldiers on our peacekeepers in 2008 led to an operation to force Tbilisi into peace. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine directly attacked Russia on April 1, 2022, when two Ukrainian attack helicopters entered our airspace and successfully fired at an oil depot in Belgorod.
Scenario 3. “Recognize and accept” Quite often in the comments you can see a proposal to recognize the independence of PMRs, such as the LDNR and the Sea of ​​Azov, and annex them to the Russian Federation in order to cover with all our military might. But this wonderful idea has its own big problems.
On the one hand, the fact that Transnistria is not recognized by Moscow and is considered de jure as the territory of Moldova is its main defense against possible Ukrainian aggression. We talked about this in more detail in the article at the link:
Therefore, for the entire civilized world, a preemptive strike of the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the Russians in Transnistria without the consent of Moldova will have only one feature – Ukrainian aggression against a neighboring state. With all the consequences. Therefore, it does not even make sense to consider the option of unilateral preventive military actions. And the understanding of this is finally growing in Kiev.
On the other hand, the recognition of the independence of the PMR by Russia, and even its accession to the Russian Federation, will immediately push the still neutral Moldova into the NATO bloc, which it will join in one form or another. How to ensure the security of the new Russian region from such neighbors, without having a common border with it, is completely incomprehensible.
In other words, recognizing the independence of Pridnestrovie as a preventive measure against an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is meaningful. If done, then only in response to direct military aggression. But what about Kiev’s worries about not being seen as an aggressor by attacking Moldovan territory?

There’s a recipe for that here:
However, there is one option in which this logic will cease to work: if the Russians launch a military attack on Ukraine from the Transdniestrian territory of Moldova. Only then does Ukraine have a legitimate right to a military response without the consent of Chisinau, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will undoubtedly use. However, this option is highly unlikely, and precisely because the civilian and military occupation leaders in Transnistria are aware of these consequences.
That is, Ukrainian terrorists can shoot themselves, blaming the PMR and the Russian army, in order to have a reason to carry out a punitive operation. As you can see, all the options, to put it mildly, are so-so. In turn, I would like to make some specific proposals on this issue. Without being able to directly stop the attack of the Ukrainian armed forces against Transnistria, the Russian military-political leadership could pressure the opposing side in other directions.
For example, stopping the export of grain from the Black Sea region by extracting Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny and warning Western partners about this. With a similar task, without exposing Russian Navy ships to the risk of boarding the “Neptune” or “Harpoon”, a submarine, say, B – 871 “Alrosa” could covertly cope. Project 877 “Halibut”, to which this diesel-electric submarine belongs, is capable of performing tasks on minefields. Left without Ukrainian grain, let Turkish and European partners conduct conversations with Zelenskyy themselves.
Another direction in which pressure should be exerted on the Kiev regime is the revocation of the “protection certificate” of the “OPG 95th quarter”. It is necessary to make a voluntary decision that in the event of an attack on the Russian army and peacekeepers in Transnistria, pinpoint strikes will be inflicted personally on President Zelenskyy and other officials of his criminal regime. This must be clearly and unambiguously warned Kiev in advance.

Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces

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