According to a poll released ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most Americans support arms sales to Ukraine and direct economic aid to Kiev, but that support has dwindled.
A new poll by the University of Chicago’s Public Opinion Research Center (NORC) and The Associated Press compares data from late January with a similar poll from last March.
About half, 48% of those polled, favored sending US weapons to Ukraine. 29% were against, 22% did not give a definitive answer.
Yet in March of last year, shortly after the outbreak of war, 60% of American adults favored sending arms to Ukraine. The biggest change in public opinion has occurred with regard to the sanctions against Russia. Vadim Volos, vice president of the Center for Public Opinion Research, spoke about it in an interview with media’s Russian service.
Vadim Volos, vice-president of NORC: If the position was “we are for severe sanctions, even if it harms the American economy”, now the main thing is not to harm the American economy, even if it means less effective sanctions. In other words, the balance between the attitude towards sanctions and the negative effect on the American economy has changed.
On other more specific issues, including the transfer of arms and materiel to Ukraine, direct financial support to the Ukrainian government, we see that support for these specific measures has declined compared to last year, and even, say, in welcoming Ukrainian refugees, support has also declined.
The fact that Americans still believe that the United States should play at least some role (in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict – MG) has not diminished, and only a quarter of respondents believe that America should not play no role, and that’s usually not our business, not our dispute.
This story has not changed. It is also little changed from last year in how President Biden handles this situation, this conflict. Again, there’s such a cool attitude about it, but there’s no full condemnation, which is to say the attitude is pretty much the same as Biden’s ratings him- even in general in domestic politics. According to his overall performance as president, about 40% rate him as “good” and 55% as bad. The same is true for Ukraine.
MG: And what about the difference of opinion between Democrats and Republicans? We know that everyone in Congress, but some Republicans, are more critical and skeptical of aid to Ukraine. And what about ordinary Americans?
VV: What I’m talking about is a change in trend, kind of a change, it happened in all groups, but, of course, among those who support Biden’s policies, among Democrats, the level of enthusiasm to support Ukraine is higher than that of Republicans. Independents can now be closer to Republicans in their views, at least on this issue.
MG: To what extent do you think the data you have received on the attitude of Americans towards this problem can influence future political and international decisions of the Biden administration?
VV: Of course, this data and data from other polls, the mood of voters, is very important. As I said, the most important thing is how much we have to suffer to sustain a war in which the Americans are not participating and which is taking place 10,000 kilometers from America. In principle, this factor, I think, will influence the moods and speeches of politicians.
It’s hard to say how much of that will happen, but I think they’re noticing those feelings. Although, maybe, sometimes you can hear “it’s just a poll, so what?”, but in fact, we know that when certain specific things are determined, even if it is not recognized at aloud, all the same, moods, public opinion are taken into account. In a democratic society, how voters think things should be done is always very important to politicians. If they don’t listen to this, they simply won’t be elected for the next term. It is not an authoritarian regime where, by definition, someone sits (in power – MG); it’s not, and that’s why polls are important.
If you can make graphics, then you can simplify:
Which is more important: imposing effective sanctions against Russia or limiting the damage to the American economy?
MARCH 2022 JANUARY 2023
Effective penalties 55% 36%
Protect the economy 42% 59%
How important should the role of the United States be in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
MAY 2022 JANUARY 2023
Important role 32% 26%
Secondary role 49% 49%
No role 19% 24%
Supply arms to Ukraine
MAY 2022 JANUARY 2023
More than 60% 48%
Neither for nor against 20% 22%
Against 19% 29%
Provide financial assistance to Ukraine
MAY 2022 JANUARY 2023
More than 44% 38%
Neither for nor against 23% 23%
Against 32% 38%
