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Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

Dossier Center learned about the Kremlin’s strategy to absorb Belarus

The Dossier Center, along with eleven other media from Europe and the United States, received a document with the Kremlin’s strategy to integrate Belarus into Russia by 2030.
The document is called “Strategic goals of the Russian Federation in the Belarusian direction”. It was reportedly developed by the administration of the President of Russia in conjunction with the Foreign Intelligence Service, the FSB and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Plans for Belarus were drawn up in 2021 and did not change in the long term after the Russian invasion of Ukraine , Dossier writes.
According to the strategy, by 2030 the Kremlin intends to complete the reform of the Constitution of Belarus, taking into account Russian interests, to achieve the supremacy of the Russian language over the Belarusian language in the country and to introduce a simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports. to Belarusians.
In addition, the Kremlin wants to control the information space of Belarus, open USE points in the country, as well as scientific and cultural centers. It is assumed that these will be branches of Rossotrudnichestvo, in which often under cover work Russian intelligence officers, writes Dossier.
Until the end of 2022, the administration of the President of Russia was faced with the task of convincing the leaders of Belarus of the need to work on the Union State, officially created in 2000.
In November 2022, as part of the so-called Union State integration decree, accepted 28 programs for trade and economic integration of countries. They concern the common energy and financial markets, the synchronization of tax and customs policies. At the same time, a common military doctrine was approved.
At the stage of coordinating these programs, Lukashenko assured that economic integration with Russia does not threaten the sovereignty of Belarus. Putin then said that after the creation of the economic base, the political rapprochement between the two countries could also begin.
In addition to the objectives, the strategy also outlines threats to Russia’s plans in Belarus, Dossier writes. The Kremlin fears the rapprochement of Belarus with NATO members, the influence of nationalist and pro-Western politicians on Lukashenka and the refusal to teach in Belarus in Russian. Replacing Russian COVID-19 vaccines with American and European vaccines was also seen as a threat.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not change plans. “The long-term goal of achieving full control over Belarus is still in place,” said a media source who also received an internal Kremlin document. In addition, all the experts interviewed agreed that due to Russia’s help in the war, Lukashenko lost the vestiges of his independence.

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