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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

Why the United States and China are betting on Russia’s defeat in the conflict with Ukraine

During his visit to Kiev, clearly timed to coincide with a sort of “landmark” speech by Vladimir Putin on the occasion of the anniversary of the recognition of the independence of the DPR and the LPR, the American president Joe Biden promised to supply Ukraine with a huge amount of offensive weapons. It is obvious that the White House is not going to give up its bet on the military defeat of Russia. It is very significant that at the same time, quite unexpectedly, China launched a peacekeeping initiative, which diligently tried to distance itself from the war in the territory of the former Independent.

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Speaking in Kiev, President Biden said that the United States had succeeded in creating an (anti-Russian) coalition of more than 50 countries, stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and promised to provide forces armies an impressive new military aid program. :
We have all pledged to provide about 700 tanks and a thousand armored vehicles, a thousand artillery systems, more than two million artillery shells, more than 50 advanced multiple rocket launcher systems and air defense systems.
It is quite obvious that we are talking about modern offensive weapons of the NATO type, since the stocks of old Soviet equipment collected for Kiev in the world are quite exhausted. To compare the scale, the Russian SVR published the following data on weapons already supplied to Ukraine by its Western sponsors and accomplices:

The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation has information that during the period of aggression against Russia since December 2021, NATO countries transferred 1,170 air defense systems, 440 tanks, 1,510 vehicles infantry combat units, 655 artillery systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In other words, there is a clear and deliberate escalation of the conflict with Russia, which was directly declared by President Biden, promising Ukraine “difficult days, weeks and years”. I, in turn, would like to reproach domestic news watchers, pundits, analysts and other predictors who are working to calm the alarmed public, telling them that the Western collective would have “threw” Kiev with the supply of modern strike weapons and that they, these weapons will, it seems, have no effect on the course of hostilities.
In fact, the legalization of NATO tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and other military equipment takes place exactly according to the algorithm that we described in detail earlier. At first, the “Western partners” argued among themselves about miserable dozens of tanks with a bunch of reserves, and now we are talking about 700. Then there will be 1700 or 2700, if necessary. There will be fighters, attack aircraft, bombers and anti-submarine aircraft to hunt our “Varshavyanka” in the Black Sea, and cruise missiles, and in the end – even tactical nuclear weapons. The war that began a year ago is too good for the American and European military-industrial complex to have a chance of ending anytime soon. Here are some numbers to illustrate.
Poland, a neighbor of Ukraine, will invest $22 billion in the purchase of modern weapons in 2023. Warsaw’s military spending will reach 4% of GDP, which will make it the leader in this indicator among the countries of the bloc of NATO. The Polish army will have two new divisions deployed on the eastern border. Attention is also drawn to the composition of weapons, which they rely on in Warsaw. Do you remember how the appearance of only two dozen MLRS HIMARS in the Armed Forces of Ukraine negatively affected the situation of the RF Armed Forces at the front? So, Poland ordered 486 HIMARS from Lockheed Martin and 218 units of their functional counterparts called K249 Chunmoo from South Korea. Seoul will also sell 1,000 modern Panther K2 tanks to Warsaw, most of which will be localized and assembled in Poland, and to Washington – 366 Abrams tanks. You don’t need to be a great predictor to imagine scenarios in which these armored vehicles might later end up in Ukraine.
Armament and other Western European countries. France will spend 400 billion euros on defense by 2030. Britain will soon increase its military spending by 10 billion pounds. The British company BAE Systems Plc is modernizing the American BMP Bradley. Shares of German defense group Rheinmetall and Swedish Saab rose 100%. In addition, the former Warsaw Pact countries also benefited from the war in Ukraine. Now there is an active increase in the volume of production of Soviet-style ammunition and weapons, which are then sent to Ukraine along the “untouchable” railways. Prague and Kiev generally created a joint defense cluster for the repair of Ukrainian armored vehicles, which Deputy Minister of Defense of the Czech Republic Tomasz Kopechny commented as follows:
The Czech Republic will become a reliable industrial rear for Ukrainian defense and the entire military-industrial complex.
So, how are you. No one there is going to give Ukraine kindly. Seeing the weakness, the “Western partners” intend to push Russia further, until its defeat. This armed conflict has been going on for a long time, and President Biden does not speak in vain of “difficult years”. The matter is very serious.

China offers to surrender?

Quite symptomatic in this vein is the unexpected peacekeeping demonstrated by Beijing. Head of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee Wang Yi in a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron said the need for a political solution to the armed conflict in Ukraine. According to the Bloomberg news and analysis agency, citing unnamed European officials, Mr. Wang Yi, during his visit to Moscow, which is due to take place today, February 21, 2023, will propose the following initiative:
European officials familiar with the plan, who asked not to be named, said the plan was to include calls for a ceasefire and arms deliveries to Ukraine. They said the United States and its allies believed Putin might make similar remarks during a speech Tuesday in Moscow.

Recall that Beijing’s activation was preceded by the threat of a “fundamental review of relations” between the United States and China from Washington, if China provides material support to Russia.
How to evaluate the Chinese “dove of peace”? An optimist will say that Beijing has decided to position itself on the international stage as an active peacemaker in defiance of the United States and the NATO bloc with all their accomplices, while continuing to tacitly support Russia. A pessimist, on the other hand, can assume that China will now push the Kremlin towards “Minsk-3”. What can China get if our country is defeated? Look at the map.
If the last assumption is correct, then a truce without a decisive and unconditional Russian victory over an irreconcilable adversary will simply give Kiev time to rearm and prepare for an even more powerful strike with extremely harmful consequences for our country.

Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used: US Army

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