In Ukraine, called the terms and conditions of a turning point in the war

Kiev – Decisive battles await Ukraine in mid to late spring. And it will be a turning point in the war. This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov, in an interview with Forbes Ukraine.He noted that “Russia’s new ‘big’ offensive is already underway, but it’s going on so that everyone doesn’t even see it, it’s such a quality offensive.””The strategic goal of the Russian Federation by March 31 is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions,” said Kirill Budanov. According to him, “this is what they dream of, they will not be able to do it”.Kirill Budanov spoke about the situation around Bakhmut and said that from a military point of view, holding this city “gives us the confinement of the Russians in this area and inflicts catastrophic losses on them”.”We are exhausting them and protecting our territory, which in no way can be assessed in context: it is advisable or inappropriate to leave,” said the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.He said he could subjectively name Ukraine’s three biggest defeats and victories:”The first big defeat is the temporary defeat of Ukraine in the Severodonetsk region. The second is the first period of the war, when the line was broken in the Volnovakha region. And thirdly, it will be a joint response – that in 2014 we allowed the temporary occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Here are our three biggest defeats, but they are all fixable,” Budanov told Forbes Ukraine.Victory, according to him, is the rejection of the enemy from the direction of Kiev, actions in the direction of Kharkiv and the return of control over the city of Kherson.To the question “What can put an end to war?” What are the conditions for this on both sides?”, Kirill Budanov replied that “we have one condition – to reach the administrative borders of 1991, we will decide everything else later”.About the situation at the frontIn the evening operational report, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on February 22 reports that the enemy continues to attack the positions of the troops in the direction of Bakhmut.”The enemy is actively conducting aerial reconnaissance to correct artillery fire. 18 settlements were shelled. Among them are Controversial, Veseloye, Dubovo-Vasilovka, Berkhovka, Yagodnoye, Bakhmut and Ozaryanovka, ”says the General Staff Ukrainian Armed Forces on Facebook.The defense forces air force delivered ten strikes per day on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers. And units of missile and artillery troops hit two areas of concentration of enemy manpower in one day.Following the Stavka meeting on February 21, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted in a video message that “reports concerning the Donetsk and Luhansk regions evoke special emotions.””We are doing everything to contain the enemy attacks there – constant intensive assaults which Russia does not stop, although it suffers huge losses there. General Syrsky reported from the Bakhmut and Liman leaderships. Brutal fighting “Fundamental fights. We are doing everything to support our guys. General Tarnavsky reported on the battles to Avdeevsky and in other directions,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.He said it was very important: “despite all the pressure on our forces, the front line has not changed”.Tipping point and political moment of the offensivePolitical scientist, director of the Institute of Dialogue for Socio-Political Design Andriy Miselyuk believes that by assessing the situation at the front, political agreements in a complex, Ukraine has the opportunity to launch a counteroffensive against the background of the weakening of Russia.“We are talking about the fact that Russia will exhaust its tactical potential in the coming weeks, and after that a Ukrainian counteroffensive will take place, weapons from Western countries will arrive. Given these opportunities, we can expect important victories that allow us to speak of a turning point or that Ukraine will achieve significant success in liberating its territories,” Andriy Miselyuk told the Russian service correspondent of media.He envisions a reasonable time frame for a Ukrainian counter-offensive starting in mid-spring or early summer.”With regard to the political agreement to ensure the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it is possible that during Biden’s visit to Kiev and his negotiations with President Zelenskyyy, there was also talk that the deadline for the use of all aid is limited. Take into account the impending elections in the United States, as well as the fact that some representatives of the Republican Party are trying to create barriers preventing Ukraine from receiving military assistance. Most likely, this signal was transmitted by Joe Biden to the Ukrainian leaders, ”underlines Andriy Miselyuk.Of the architecture of military assistanceAn important point for the timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the director of the Public Research Center “Ukrainian Meridian” Dmitry Levus, calls the understanding of the existing international architecture of aid to victories at the front.“There is a format of European military assistance, which is carried out in volume, in addition to this, the Ukrainian army is trained in various specialties, a special fund has been created for the purchase of weapons directly from manufacturers. We can say that the architecture of military assistance has been formalized, ”says Dmitry Levus to the correspondent of the Russian service media.He believes that a turning point will come: “If such a forecast is given, it is because it is based on something. In terms of time, it seems quite logical, ”underlines Dmitry Levus.According to him, Ukraine needs not only a sufficient amount of equipment, but also trained personnel.“Tanks are needed to break through the front line, but technical equipment alone does not lead to success. We need trained crews, a set of actions: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, air defense and other weapons, which will be controlled by specialists, ”emphasizes Dmitry Levus.