In Russia, compared to the beginning of December 2022, 10% fewer people began to believe that the military operation in Ukraine had failed, and 12% more – that it would last more than a year. This is demonstrated by data from the Russian Fields study (available at the disposal of RTVI).
The previous similar survey was conducted by this independent sociological society from November 29 to December 5, 2022, the current one – from January 31 to February 6, 2023, it became the 11th in a row devoted to a special military operation. The study was carried out by telephone interview on a sample of 2,000 people.
what changed
Compared to the previous survey, respondents’ assessment of the progress of the military operation as a whole has changed:
More than half (56%) said they were doing well, up 6% from the previous survey. The proportion of those who consider the conduct of hostilities a failure for Russia was 23%, down 10% from last year’s survey.
Respondents’ opinion regarding the expected duration of the military operation also changed:
42% said it will last even more than a year (+12% compared to previous results), 20% said it won’t last more than a year (+2%).
At the same time, the share of those who believe in the imminent end of hostilities has globally decreased:
9% – up to six months (-11%), 2% – up to three months (-7%), 1% – no more than one month (-2%).
The number of those who found it difficult to answer increased by 7% – in the latest study, this happened with one in four. Recall that during a study conducted by Russian Field in the summer of 2022, 69% of respondents said that the military operation was dragging on.
Half of respondents (49%) now assess the need to continue hostilities positively, 40% – negatively. Compared to the previous survey, the share of the former increased by 4%, while that of the latter fell by the same amount.
On the impact of a military operation on life
Asked about the impact of the military operation on their lives, more than a third of respondents (37%) said they did not feel it. This response is most often given to men (40%) and respondents over 60 (44%).
22% of respondents admitted that their “standard of living, income, price” or “emotional background, mental health, nervous system” suffered. Another 6% said their loved ones were involved in hostilities. The remaining complaints (problems at work, instability, lack of travel abroad, etc.) do not exceed 5% in terms of shares.
The level of support for the military operation remained practically the same (69% support it, 22% do not support it).
Peace, Mobilization and Prigogine
At the same time, if Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the signing of peace with Kiev, 60% of those questioned are ready to support this decision, and one in four is not. The share of the former decreased by 4% compared to the previous survey, while the share of the latter increased by 2%. Women and study participants under the age of 45 most often favor a peace agreement.
If a second wave of partial mobilization is announced, more than a third of the men questioned (36%) will join the army, most of them (29%) after having received the summons. One in four admitted to intending to choose an “ignore or dodge strategy” about the project. Remember that in the fall, during the Russian Field poll, 64% of those questioned supported the president’s decision to mobilize, while 31% were against.
The survey also included a question about the role of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of PMC Wagner, in the military operation: 41% rated his contribution positively, 15% negatively, almost a third (31%) said not knowing about the activities of Prigozhin. .
