From general to specific
Strategically, sanctions against the state and its structures are already running out, experts say. But now the restrictions are increasingly extended to household goods and services for ordinary citizens. And the expansion of parallel import supplies can lead to secondary sanctions against third-country companies and overload the logistics infrastructure. This is the main danger of the tenth package.It was hard to agree on that. Everyone was surprised that a “hawk” such as Poland was slowing down the adoption of restrictive measures. In the end, Warsaw agreed to the sanctions on the condition that they could be tightened in the future.Tinkoff Bank, Alfa-Bank and Rosbank, as well as the National Welfare Fund, the Russian National Reinsurance Company (RNRC) fell under the new EU sanctions.The EU has extended restrictions on exports to Russia of critical technologies and manufactured goods. Among them: electronics, construction machinery, spare parts for cars, trucks and aircraft engines, goods for the construction sector, dual-use products that can be used for military purposes. Additional restrictions have been introduced on the export to Russia of heavy trucks, their spare parts and other special equipment and building materials. Electronics, pumps, metalworking machinery also fell under the sanctions.The European Union has also introduced new import bans on asphalt and synthetic rubber from Russia, which is used to make tires. It is also now impossible to import bitumen, asphalt, carbon black from Russia to the EU.In the banking sector, sanctions were expected and prepared for them. Alfa-Bank and Tinkoff Bank said they would not affect customer service in Russia, but would affect international investors more.The ban on supplying asphalt (a type of bitumen used in road construction) to Europe will not become something noticeable for Russia. “Among the Europeans, perhaps Finland, Great Britain and Norway have bought large volumes,” notes Ilya Ponomarev, an expert at the Public Council of the Ministry of Construction. In his opinion, the introduction of such restrictions seems rather strange.
Blockade of exports
However, there will be losses. In the European Commission, the new sanctions package is estimated at 11.4 billion euros, that is, mutual trade will decrease by this amount. Together with the previous sanctions, due to which the EU budget lost 32.5 billion euros, the restrictions affect almost half (49%) of all exports from EU countries to Russia. Imports from Russia to the EU are reduced by 60%. If the Europeans have blocked their exports to Russia by about 100 billion euros, that is to say by half, then there is still about 100 billion euros left, there is a reserve to continue the policy of sanctions, notes political scientist Georgy Bovt.
It is likely that then household goods will completely follow, as well as medicines and medicines, some types of food.The “children’s world doctor” Leonid Roshal also fell under the sanctions. In this photo, he is helping the victims of the Islamabad earthquake. Pakistan. 17/10/2005. Photo: Ria NovostiIn addition, the tenth EU sanctions package should be considered together with the US measures, which were also announced the day before. In general, the sanctions apply to all industrial production and construction, in addition, they affect household appliances, underlines the expert. For example, in the United States they indicated that it is impossible to supply more expensive refrigerators over $750 or vacuum cleaners over $100, smartphones over $300 to Russia. With modern inflation, most technologies fall below this mark. We went straight through the nomenclature of Russian imports, says Bovt. “In the huge American list of hundreds of pages of customs codes, there are, for example, devices for stapling books and needles for these devices. That is to say, the list does not include chips for military drones,” he explains. Many of the technologies that have fallen under sanctions have nothing to do with military production.The economic damage caused to Russia by the tenth sanctions package is 10 times lower than that of the first
Risks of secondary sanctions increase
The tenth package is targeted in nature and is already devoid of strategic imperatives, notes Evgeny Balatsky, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at the Government Finance University. If the previous packages were supposed to cause the paralysis of strategically important segments of the Russian economy (energy, banking, transport and other sectors), then this package is already aimed at “cleaning up” everything that has not yet been reflected in the previous decisions, he believes. “The economic law of diminishing returns is very clearly illustrated by the example of the sanctions packages: the negative effect of each subsequent package is less than the previous one. Basically, the economic damage caused to Russia by the tenth sanctions package are 10% less than since the beginning, “he says. The measures are vague, some raise questions, such as the ban on supplying Russians with gas storage capacity in Europe.With regard to the export of critical technologies and industrial goods (electronics, specialized vehicles, machine parts, spare parts for trucks and jet engines, etc.), Russia will seek workarounds and carry out substitution imports, as it has done throughout the previous year, he thinks.But the United States prohibits the export of technology and all equipment, where there is more than 25% of American technology, and they are almost everywhere, notes Bovt. This means that the risks of secondary sanctions for suppliers of parallel imports increase.”That’s the main threat. Besides, they’re going to put pressure on the Turks, the Arabs, the Chinese, not to supply us with needles for the sewing machines, like Singer invented them,” explains Bovt. Of course, there are various options for the production and supply of such products to Russia from third countries. The question is who will take these risks. Neither China nor India are really ready to go for a frontal violation of the sanctions. So now the sanctions initiators will identify companies that violate the sanctions regime and try to punish them.In such a situation, Russia will have to establish parallel imports in all directions, which is fraught with overloads, including for counterparties. They will have to choose whether to provide shavings, needles, curtains or vacuum cleaners, Bovt said.
Icebreakers will not be disarmed
The new sanctions list includes four research centers in Sarov, Moscow and near St. Petersburg, which have sought, where possible, to maintain professional and responsible relationships with colleagues at Los Alamos, Livermore, Sandia and other nuclear weapons centers in the United States. From now on, the Europeans who advocate dialogue are torpedoing it themselves.There are various options for the supply of goods to Russia via third countries, the question is who will dare to take these risks.And what and to whom did our nuclear icebreakers interfere? Including those who, in late autumn 2021, rescued from captivity in the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea a caravan of foreign ships and several dry cargo ships that were in danger of setting off on their own? But for some, Atomflot is like a bone in the throat, so they subjected it to sanctions. Yes, only “Arktika” and “Siberia” led by the icebreaker “50 years of Victory” will not be stopped…To companies in the Russian nuclear industry, against which the UK, US and Canada had previously imposed unilateral sanctions, they are in no hurry to respond emotionally. And they specify that in all circumstances, they consider it a matter of honor to fulfill the international obligations assumed.Indeed, why Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Hungary, Egypt, India, China, Turkey, Uzbekistan, where Russia is involved in building new nuclear power plants and/or nuclear research facilities, should they suffer because such mutually beneficial cooperation is not appreciated by someone something in Ottawa, London and Washington?!”The position of the Russian nuclear industry is unchanged. We will continue to honor all current contracts for as long as possible,” said the statement published by RIA-Novosti.
People won’t change
People of different ages and professions, who have received respect in their own country and great popularity abroad, will not become different from the fact that someone decided to include their names in the next list of penalties.The world’s first female cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova and Svetlana Savitskaya, who twice visited near-Earth orbit, the daughter of a participant in the Great Patriotic War, an ace pilot, twice a Hero of the Soviet Union and herself a two-time Hero, will not think and vote differently because it does not please the current authorities in Kiev and their bosses in Washington.There will be no further reaction to the forthcoming news about the inclusion in the EU sanctions list of well-known public figures in Russia, including Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova, the head of the Council of human rights under the President of the Russian Federation Valery Fadeev, the founder of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, and now the dean of the Higher School of Television of Moscow State University named after MV Lomonosov Vitali Tretyakov.Tatyana Moskalkova believes that the inclusion of the institution of the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, a personified constitutional state body, is another proof of the helplessness of the United States and EU countries , their interest in aggravating the conflict.Along with other co-chairs of the All-Russian People’s Front, a person with a pronounced civic position, an outstanding doctor, President of the Research Institute of Pediatric Emergency Surgery and Traumatology, Leonid Roshal, received the mark of sanction. In the mid-90s, for his peacekeeping efforts during the hostilities in Chechnya, he was awarded the honorary title of “Children’s World Doctor”.Leonid Roshal – author, “RG” expert. He is a professor, doctor of medical sciences, public figure, president of the National Medical Chamber. He’s a work hero.It’s just happiness when you have the opportunity to call him if somewhere there are problems with the child, if you need to save him, if he needs not only medical help, but human, civil. There is no denial!And these are not the titles that are listed here, although they are all important. The most important title: Roshal is the world’s children’s doctor. Nobody else has that title. And sanctions against him??The position of the Russian nuclear industry remains unchanged: “We will continue to fulfill all current contracts as long as this remains possible”When the case was drawn up, the RIA-Novosti agency, citing the press service of the National Medical Chamber, reported that Leonid Roshal had been “hospitalized the day before, the operation was successful while he is in the hospital, but everything is fine.
