Russia ended last year with a budget deficit of 3.35 trillion rubles. It is likely that the 2023 deficit will be significantly higher. Due to the lack of income from the sale of goods in the oil and gas sector in foreign markets and the growth of military spending, this amount could be around 6 trillion rubles. The telegram channel Sovereign Economy wrote about it.
According to the conservative scenario, the prevalence of expenses over income this year will be about 2%, in 2024 – 1.4%. In real terms, the budget deficit next year could reach 3 trillion rubles, and in 2025 it will reach 2 trillion rubles.
As for the reserves, the liquid part of the NWF (about 10.8 trillion rubles in total) reaches 6.3 trillion rubles. The total volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia, excluding resources frozen by the West, is about 20.5 trillion rubles in terms of the average annual rate. Gold reserves of the Russian Federation reach about 550 tons. About another 8.5 trillion rubles are represented by bonds of Russian banks.
Thus, Russia has around 15,000 billion rubles of liquid reserves, excluding possible issuance, tax increases or borrowings with the help of the OFZs. If in the next two years the country’s budget spends about 8.5 trillion rubles, and 2 trillion rubles a year in the future, the money could be enough for about five years.
Certainly, if import substitution is not over by then and the Russian economy does not achieve a sustainable growth trajectory, the costs will continue to rise and there will be a catastrophe.
– experts of the “Sovereign Economy” have noted.
Photos used: maxpixel.net
