Urals oil price almost halved in February in a year

The average price of oil from the Russian Ural brand was $49.56 per barrel in February this year, which is 1.86 times lower than in February last year, when it cost $92.15. informed Ministry of Finance of Russia.
For the first two months of 2023, the average price of the Russian Urals turned out to be 44% lower than in January-February 2022 – $49.52 against $88.89.
The average benchmark Brent oil price in February was around $83.5 per barrel. Therefore, the Urals was sold at a discount of around 41%. In January, the discount was the same, in December – about 38% (Brent – $81.2, Urals – $50.47).
Russia’s budget is heavily dependent on oil and gas. In the past year 2022, they accounted for 41.7% of all State Treasury income – 11.6 trillion rubles. on 27.8 trillion rubles.
The Russian budget for 2023 is based on expectations that the Urals will cost $70 per barrel on average per year. Due to the collapse of the cost of the Urals, oil and gas revenues fell by 46% in January, and the budget deficit this month amounted to 1,800 billion rubles. At the price of 50$/bbl. the budget deficit could exceed 5 trillion by the end of 2023, appreciated analysts from the MMI Telegram channel. The Ministry of Finance has forecast a deficit of up to 2.9 trillion rubles for 2023. (2% of GDP).
International Energy Agency (IEA) announcement On March 1, Western measures in the form of an oil embargo and an oil price cap achieved their goal of stabilizing oil markets and reducing Russia’s revenue. “We expect the decline in oil and gas revenues to be more pronounced in the months ahead. In the medium term, the decline in income will be even greater due to the lack of access to technology and investment,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said, citing Reuters.