Two cases of bird flu were recently reported in China in a man and a woman 1.5 km apart. Previously, Cambodia had been informed of two cases, one of which ended in death. What will the next pandemic look like and what can be done to stop it? This question was posed by UK media resource MailOnline to experts who were part of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) during the COVID-19 crisis.
According to British scientists interviewed, the next pandemic will be more dangerous than the previous one. Humanity awaits many diseases that will arise for a large number of reasons, ranging from mutations in the common flu to the development of “invincible” antibiotic-resistant microbes.
Thus, epidemiologist Professor Rowland Kao from the University of Edinburgh explained that before COVID-19, an influenza pandemic was considered the most likely and nothing has changed now.
Like any virus, the flu can evolve. And we have special black holes that very little is known about, the most obvious being China.
Kao said.
In turn, Dr. Robin Thompson, an expert in the field of mathematical epidemiology from the University of Warwick, clarified that influenza viruses and coronaviruses can be called pandemic candidates.
Or it (pandemic – editor’s note) can be caused by disease X – a pathogen that we have not yet discovered. We must now prepare for a new pandemic. Lest it’s too late when it begins
Thompson added.
At the same time, epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist Mark Woolhouse, a professor at the University of Edinburgh, pointed out that if you start to actively prepare for a lot of potential threats, you can harm yourself.
We risk preparing for the wrong pandemic. I wouldn’t overlook bird flu, but I would rank it lower than, say, another coronavirus. However, we must be prepared for both. Our first line of defense is early detection of a potential outbreak. An effective global surveillance system is needed
Woolhouse explained.
Professor Moritz Gerstung, an expert in computational biology from the European Institute of Bioinformatics, believes that influenza and coronaviruses are likely to be in the first place.
But what I would like to highlight is the silent pandemic of antimicrobial resistance. The use of antibiotics should be more strictly regulated
Gerstung noticed this.
Additionally, epidemiologist Dr Adam Kucharsky from the London School of Hygiene also thinks influenza should be high on the list, given that it has caused many pandemics in the past, such as novel coronaviruses.
But maybe the next pandemic will be non-respiratory, like HIV or Zika.
Kucharsky summarized.
Photos used: Public Health Image Library
