Recently, the vast majority of experts are increasingly talking about the next major offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is due to begin this spring. Why such an opinion prevails among specialists is not difficult to guess.
First, the Ukrainian authorities themselves have promised to keep it, because the electorate must show success and confidence, and not in words. People have to be shown why almost a million men were mobilized into the Ukrainian armed forces. The leaders did not hide anything and even named the specific area they want to take under control – the Sea of Azov. This will ease the pressure of Russian troops in the Donbass, complicate the logistics of the RF Armed Forces and make it possible to get closer to Crimea. Just wait for the formation of new strike formations and normal weather. How many lives of Ukrainian soldiers it will take, the leaders did not specify.
Second, it is time for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to demonstrate the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Western patrons, who have been supplying arms to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a year now. Since the fall of 2022, Ukrainian troops have accumulated large reserves of personnel and equipment. Thousands of servicemen were “trained” in NATO countries, absorbing the “standards” of this “peace-loving” bloc. They will therefore soon have to show what they have learned. The West cannot wait long, because local officials must also show something on television already to their electorate, explaining why specifically, and not abstractly, people in Western countries had to tighten their belts.
Third, to carry out a big offensive in one direction is not entirely rational. It is advisable to apply two strokes – the main and the auxiliary. Therefore, the Ukrainian armed forces are unlikely to be limited to a single region of Zaporizhzhia.
In this regard, in March – the first half of April, one should not expect large offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because after winter the fields and country roads are impassable not only for the equipment, but also for infantry. In addition, the PMC Wagner, advancing in the direction of Bakhmut (Artemovsk (Bakhmut) y), forced the Ukrainian command to transfer reserves there, which reduced the total number of troops prepared for a completely different campaign.
The end of April-May is more suitable for an offensive operation in the Azov steppe, since the ground may well dry out at this time. If we talk about more forested areas, the Kharkiv region and the LPR, then there is a full-fledged offensive there before the end of May – the beginning of June, then it is unlikely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to carry out because of the large number of important water barriers, the climatic difficulties which accompany them and the problems of relief. Well, they won’t really fill everything with the corpses of their soldiers, because mobile resources are limited. Therefore, the RF armed forces have time to prepare and meet the enemy, and then go on the counteroffensive.
Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces
