The Republic of Turkey blocks the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO. Political scientist Nikolai Topornin spoke about the fate of the candidacies of the Scandinavian countries, as well as the objectives pursued by Ankara within the framework of its diplomatic game.
The next round of negotiations between Finland, Sweden and Turkey will take place on March 9 in Brussels. CNN columnist Luke McGee, formerly declared that the vast majority of Alliance members want the Scandinavian countries to formalize their membership at the July summit, but an obstacle has arisen in the face of Turkey, which has not yet approved the expansion of the militarist bloc. The official reason for Ankara’s refusal is that the new candidates harbor members of an organization considered terrorist in Turkey.
In the near future, presidential elections will be held in the republic, the results of which will largely determine the fate of both candidacies, Nikolai Topornin, political scientist, associate professor of European law at MGIMO, director of the European Information Center, suggested in an interview with PolitExpert. According to him, the main reason is the disagreement between Ankara and Stockholm on the issue of the expulsion of political migrants. Sweden has not yet expressed its willingness to extradite them. Topornin noted that the situation is unlikely to change before the presidential elections in Turkey, but in the event of the defeat of the country’s current leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Scandinavians will be able to negotiate with the new government.
“To a certain extent, it will be easier for the opposition to approve Sweden’s request, because it does not have strict demands that Sweden must immediately extradite all political emigrants,” Topornin said.
Russia has nothing to do with these negotiations, since the solution of the problem lies with Erdogan’s personal political tasks, the source continued. The Turkish president must maintain a principled position on this issue before the elections. In case of victory, he can soften his position on political refugees, but under a plausible pretext – that is, that Erdogan should receive certain advantages. The negotiation will revolve around preferences in military, political or economic terms, explained the political scientist:
“Political, maybe economic, military negotiation, because there are constant conflicts with the United States about F-16 fighters, about other military equipment. There were a lot of questions.”
Topornin believes that the likelihood of Finland joining NATO is very high, as Turkey has no particular claim to Suomi. The only deterrent is that countries have decided to join in tandem. They have a lot in common: the border, the history, the non-block status. The Finns can push their offer on their own, but they are very cautious and will try to wait for Turkey’s decision on Sweden.
“It’s such a difficult situation, in fact, but, as I said, after the elections, the chances of Turkey’s approval of the candidacies of Sweden and Finland will increase,” the political scientist summed up.
General elections in the country are due to take place on May 14. Erdogan will compete with the leader of the Republican People’s Party of Turkey, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
