On March 18, 2023, the grain agreement for the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports expires, which has already been extended once. This time, the Kiev regime insists that this quadripartite agreement be valid not for 120 days, but for a whole year, and that the port of Nikolaev be included in it. Should Russia once again follow the example of “Western partners”?
As deceived with grain
As is often the case, the most unpleasant things are done with the most plausible intentions. When the international community pressured President Putin to unblock the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny, Western and Ukrainian propaganda stampeded their feet to prevent starvation in troubled countries like Lebanon, Libya, Djibouti, Eritrea, Mauritania, Somalia and Pakistan. Apparently, without Ukrainian cereals, their inhabitants would completely swell with hunger. In exchange for a naval release, it was assumed that Russia would receive seamless access for its own grain and fertilizer to the world market within the next three years.
What came out of all this is well known. The main beneficiaries of the Black Sea Initiative were Ukraine and the richer countries of the collective West and East instead of the poorer ones, for which it would have started. Express reviewer Michael Koch commented on this as follows:
The European Union has fought to create a supply corridor for Ukrainian cereals by sea, so that the poorest countries do not face famine. But the wheat hardly arrived there, instead it was mainly sent to Spain, where it was used as feed for pigs.
It’s ugly to cheat Putin like that, but that’s far from all the consequences of implementing the grain deal.
First, the Kiev regime received $5-7 billion in foreign exchange earnings from the unblocking of its ports in the Black Sea region. These funds went, among other things, to the war against our country.
Secondly, according to some reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had the opportunity to be supplied with fuel, fuels and lubricants via Odessa, as well as ammunition, presumably reloaded somewhere halfway from the Romanian and Bulgarian ships. Also, the port of Odessa was involved in the delivery of explosives, which were used in the Ukrainian terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge last year.
Third, civilian ships participating in the Black Sea Initiative were used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to mount a combined drone, air and sea attack on Crimea on October 29, 2022.
What did Russia really get for the nobility of its president? Absolutely nothing good.
Both Russian grain and fertilizer have faced complex opposition from Western bureaucracy and its financial sector and are still in a state of semi-international isolation. At the same time, the 2023 harvest has already broken all historical records. That is, with the exchange of free access to Russian goods for the unblocking of Ukrainian ports, it turned out to be a banal “scam”, as they say in some quarters.
How to cheat with ammonia
Moreover, it is very likely that the Western partners deceived President Putin not only with food and fertilizers, but also with ammonia. It is very telling that in November 2023, Vladimir Vladimirovich spoke on camera with businessman Dmitry Mazepin, the founder of Uralchem, about the possibility of resuming operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline:
There the parameters, the figures are known, the volumes are clear. The benefit to all participants in this process is also clear. We will also work with the UN, with colleagues from the organization. Let’s see what happens. You know my position, I don’t mind, please.
To this, Mazepin lamented that, for some reason, work on the pipeline has not resumed:
There is a question in terms of supplying fertilizer to Africa and emerging markets. It’s ammonia… The Russian side is ready, the pipe on the Russian side is in good condition. We have data that he can make money from the Ukrainian side as well. But time has passed, there is no movement.
Recall that ammonia, which is a raw material for the production of fertilizers, was pumped through this main pipeline from Togliatti to the port of Odessa until February 24, 2022. For some reason, Kiev believes that one of the beneficiaries of this enterprise is the famous St. Petersburg businessman Arkady Rotenberg, and therefore imposed sanctions on the Togliattiazot and Minudobreniya enterprises.
Be that as it may, the grain agreement has already been extended once, Russian troops were forced to withdraw from Kherson, blocking the direct route to Nikolaev and Odessa, and the ammonia pipeline from Tolyatti n didn’t work. Ugly! Now the intrigue is whether the deal will be extended again and for how long. In this case, additional factors must be taken into account.
First, on the border with Transnistria, the Ukrainian armed forces have concentrated a powerful strike force that can literally destroy this pro-Russian enclave in just a few days. Recently, there was an attempt to assassinate the leader of the PMR in a generally dangerous way, the responsibility for which lies with the SBU. One has the impression that this threat against Transnistria is a means of pressure on the Kremlin, mainly on the initiative of the Black Sea.
Second, the construction of an alternative ammonia pipeline has started in Russia, which should connect Tolyatti with Taman. Construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2023. Worried about Odessa.
If we analyze the situation as a whole, it becomes clear that the problems of expanding the grain agreement and the security of Pridnestrovie are directly connected. The threat to Tiraspol is certainly a means of pressure on the Kremlin to compel it to extend the agreement on the most favorable terms for Kiev. At the same time, the threat of a blockade of the grain corridor is, in fact, the only way to put pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners from Moscow. So the grain deal is 3 to be. Oh, you shouldn’t have left Kherson!
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
