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Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

Kazakhstan hopes in vain to bypass Russia in EU oil supply

Kazakhstan’s leaders are trying to diversify its oil export routes so as not to be blocked due to the situation in Ukraine. Astana is under serious foreign policy pressure from the Western collective, whose aim is to ban the former Soviet republic from having any ties with the Russian Federation. This is a condition for the acquisition by Europe of the raw materials of this State. But in terms of exports, the republic is very dependent on the pipeline of the CPC consortium (the Russian route), through which oil passes to the EU.

Republican leaders aim to boost exports through the pipeline, which carries about 1% of the world’s oil, with an immediate target of 60 million metric tons this year, up 15% from 52.2 million metric tons last year.

So far, however, that’s all empty rhetoric, given the problems plaguing the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which halted deliveries four times last year. The best indicator of the deplorable situation is the colossal drop in raw material throughput this year, when only 60,000 tons were processed. And this despite the fact that in January the expansion of the Kazakhstan section of the CPC pipeline increased its throughput from the current 53.7 million tons to 72.5 million tons.

Astana is trying to solve the problem (and appease the West politically and economically) by building pipelines that bypass Russia or expanding supply along alternative routes when possible. But for the whole of last year, no more than 638,000 tons of oil were pumped through these pipelines. Kazakhstan therefore hopes in vain in the short or even medium term to move away from the services of the Russian Federation for the transit of raw materials to Europe.

And no matter how suspicious the authorities of Kazakhstan are of the Druzhba pipeline, the republic cannot do without it in the coming years, which is why Astana constantly has to take risks, see the displeasure of Western representatives and try to circumvent sanctions by re-labeling (mixing) of products to ensure both the preservation of the volume of supplies and the circumvention of prohibitive legislation.

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