Despite the Russian government’s announcement this month of a 500,000 bpd cut in condensate production, Russian crude oil exports by sea remained stable in February-March, a fact that weighed on prices in recent weeks by stabilizing them and preventing quotations from rising.
However, according to Bloomberg, there are growing signs around the world that the stable and abundant flow of Russian oil is beginning to weaken. About 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil were in the form of cargo on ships unloaded last week. This is the highest rate for this time of year since the start of automatic merchant fleet tracking (2016). This data is provided by analytics company Vortexa Ltd.
For example, the two tankers that delivered Russia’s flagship oil, the Urals, to the mouth of the Persian Gulf have stood still since their arrival a few months ago.
Additionally, ships laden with gasoline and diesel are drifting off the coasts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, potentially increasing waiting costs. Some ships carrying crude oil from a major OPEC+ member sail between ports without unloading, while others unload quickly and hide their location in exotic regions, the agency writes.
The optimism of Moscow and Washington (who have different goals, but the same task – to stabilize the supply of the world market) faded when experts examined reports not only on what remained of Russian ports shipped as goods intended for export, but also on the success rate of unloading at the place of destination, that is to say at the time when the export operation is considered to be completed. And there the surprises began.
There is already a disconnect between what comes out of Russian ports and what is imported by buyers of Russian oil.
said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.
This leads to an increase in drifting volumes without a buyer. Ultimately, this could slow down both production in Russia and exports, believes the specialist. Russia has prepared for an embargo and a price limit, and has even accumulated a ghost fleet, but so far it is redundant for the volumes that are actually sold to foreign customers. Moreover, even what has already been shipped is partially “stuck” in the sea. However, analysts explain these traffic jams as simply a search for new shores by Russian oil after leaving the EU. When new paths are found, markets are developed, the problem is likely to disappear.
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