“Such a step is a sign of weakness and the harbinger of a serious political crisis”, declares the Republic of the Pyrenees in an editorial. The critic of Figaro Yves Trear, not without bitterness, noted that the whole story has a clear “taste of defeat”. Who? Clearly, the elites in power, who in another publication, not without malice, called the “presidential minority”.
And yet, why did the current owner of the Elysee Palace decide to take such a step? Indeed, as people around him testify, Macron was put in place for the classic procedure of voting for a law providing for a retirement threshold for the French at 64, via the usual voting mechanism in both houses of parliament. Moreover, on the eve of the reform, without any roughness, it was approved in the Supreme Chamber – by almost two-thirds of the votes of the senators.
True, the main battle had to take place precisely in the National Assembly, since the deputies had the last word on the fate of the bill.
As Cabinet Minister Elisabeth Born declared Thursday evening on TF1 news, and announced to the National Assembly the decision to resort to constitutional amendment 49.3, which makes it possible to dispense with a vote, “We couldn’t risk the future of reform. “For the simple reason that they weren’t sure of his outcome.
At the same time, it threw a stone in the garden of the right-wing Les Républicains party, whose leader Eric Ciotti, it should be noted, spoke out in favor of the reform. However, according to the Prime Minister, some MPs from this faction “wanted to play a personal card” and go against the party line. Note that both the “Republicans” and all the moderately conservative political movements that preceded them, led by both Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have constantly advocated an increase in the retirement age.
Thus, the Renaissance party in power and its allies, not having an absolute majority, could count on a total of around 250 deputies (577 seats in the National Assembly). Therefore, the support of the “Republicans”, and these are 62 deputies, if not all, at least the majority, could bring victory. But it turned out that not all of them, for various reasons, despite persuasion and promises, intended to align themselves with Macron’s initiative. And they were about twenty.
In short, an hour and a half before the vote, according to the latest calculations and estimates, it turned out that the Elysée could count on 280-283 votes. About the same number could be in the opposition, which includes various leftists (149 MPs) plus Marine Le Pen and her largest faction in the lower house (88 MPs), as well as independents (20 MPs). And that’s not counting the possible “defectors” of the right.
As one government official said on condition of anonymity, “the outcome of the vote depended on two or three votes – one way or the other.” This is why Macron decided at the last moment not to take any risks.
But the story does not end there. From now on, the opposition intends, as provided for by law, to submit the question of confidence in the government to a vote in the National Assembly. Such statements were made by the leader of the “National Association” faction Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Communists Fabien Roussel, of the “La France insoumise” faction its president Matilde Pano, and of the group of independent deputies Bertrand Panchet. Apparently, this plot will be implemented next week.
Certainly, the leader of the “Republicans” Eric Siotti has already made it known that his party “will not join in any request for defiance of the government”. For example, don’t “add chaos” to the current mess.
As experience shows, in the entire history of the Fifth Republic, since the end of the 1950s, governments have resorted to Article 49.3 65 times, which has led to a vote of confidence by deputies. And only once it led to the resignation of the cabinet of ministers.
Separately, there’s the matter of the premiere of Elizabeth Bourne, who was tasked with carrying out the unpopular law. If, nevertheless, the deputies vote a vote of no confidence in the current Cabinet, which is unlikely in principle, then it will be possible to put an end to his career. Otherwise, there is a chance to stay in her post, but, according to local political analysts, she will be given the short-lived role of a “fuse” who can be replaced by a new political figure who enjoys the confidence of the president.
No doubt many will envy the social climate in the country, which has suffered the shock of the tumultuous events of recent weeks, and how events will further develop.
