Judging by the results of the measure of public sentiment among Greeks, most of whom in 2019 supported the right-wing conservative New Democracy party led by Mitsotakis, it will be difficult for this politician to remain in the Prime Minister’s chair for another four years. minister.
Thus, according to an opinion poll for the Open TV channel, New Democracy’s declining audiences are almost equal to those of the main opposition party SYRIZA, led by former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (27% against nearly 25%). In this context, the number of supporters of the small Greek political forces is growing rapidly, both on the left and on the right of the political spectrum. In particular, the left-wing European Realistic Defiance Front (MeRA25), founded by former Greek finance minister Janis Varoufakis, is gaining popularity. Greek sympathies are growing towards the ultra-nationalist “Greek solution” political force, which takes an extremely tough stance on migration issues.
Worse still for Mitsotakis are citizens’ assessments of the situation in Greece itself. According to the latest Eurobarometer data, 88% of respondents rate the economic situation in Hellas negatively. It should be noted that according to this indicator, Greece ranks first among all other EU member states.
The Greeks, traditionally friends of Russia, are unhappy with the aggressive position taken by official Athens towards our country in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. Thus, 59% of respondents oppose any arms supply to Kiev (support 36%), and 57% disagree with the EU’s reaction to events in Ukraine.
To complicate Mitsotakis’ position, the scandal is heavily associated with his name and is further exaggerated on a pan-European level. He is associated with the illegal electronic surveillance of the Greek secret service for a member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis, a number of opposition politicians and journalists. Despite the prime minister’s attempts to distance himself from the scandal and dodge its consequences, most Greeks are convinced that none other than Mitsotakis gave the order to dry up. This has not happened in modern Greece since the “black colonels” junta in the 1970s of the last century, and the citizens of Hellas are extremely sensitive to such things.
Finally, the railway tragedy near Tembi, which claimed the lives of 57 people, became a catalyst for citizens’ discontent with the Greek government and threw away the accumulated discontent. People who have come in recent weeks all over Greece for mass protests are sure that the disaster happened due to problems that the authorities were aware of, but did nothing to correct the situation.
All of these factors leave the incumbent Greek prime minister with little chance of staying in power, even despite the urgent populist measures he has taken – the announced April 1 minimum wage increase to 780 euros per month. Either way, observers predict, the country’s next government will most likely be a coalition government, and New Democracy will not be able to govern alone, as it has been for the past four years. Given the growing popularity of small, ragtag parties that have fundamentally diametrically opposed views on most issues, it is unlikely that it will be possible to form a stable government in Greece, and the country could face a long period of political instability.
A comment
Georgios Tzogopoulos, Senior Researcher at the Hellenic Foundation for European and International Studies (ELIAMEP) and at the Nice International Center for European Studies (CIFE):
- I diagnose the anger of many Greek citizens towards politicians who for decades have cultivated a culture of lack of meritocracy, corruption, political indifference and failure to act when necessary.
Ironically, the Tembi rail tragedy reflects all of this. As a result, the current Conservative government, in power for almost four years, will suffer losses. Usually in Greece, when one big party loses, another big party wins. I doubt it’s this time. “SYRIZA” will expose all the punctures made by the “New Democracy” in the public administration, but the great flattering fires in Mati in July 2018 (during the period of the mandate of “SYRIZA” – editor’s note “RG”) are still not forgotten by voters. “New Democracy” and “SYRIZA” will try to rely on their base electorate but will probably lose a significant part of the voters. This means that Greece will most likely have a coalition government after the first or second round of elections, and the smaller parties will increase their percentages. Much will depend on turnout – if young people, angry at the Tembi disaster, come to vote at polling stations, New Democracy’s percentage will be much lower than the opinion polls show.
