The resolution adopted by the participants of the 4th Anti-War Conference held in Riga, in particular, contains a protest against possible attempts to “give Putin a chance to save face”. “The aggressor should get nothing. Neither Ukrainian territories nor agreements limiting Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its domestic and foreign policy, free to choose its friends and allies,” the document said.
The conference participants, who voted for the adoption of the resolution, expressed their support for the charges brought by the International Criminal Court in The Hague against Vladimir Putin, “as well as for the idea of creating a special international court to prosecute the crime of aggression against Ukraine committed by the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation.
A separate section of the conference was devoted to this theme: “The Tribunal and transitional justice. New steps in 2023.”
Bill Bowring, a law professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, called International Criminal Court chief prosecutor Karim Khan’s decision to issue a warrant for Putin’s arrest “brilliant and very sensible”. “There is a huge amount of evidence of the abduction of Ukrainian children and the commission of war crimes. Today, the international position of Russia is worse than that of Serbia during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” explains the British lawyer.
Human rights activist Stanislav Dmitrievsky, speaking via video link, said: “A situation is emerging that previously seemed impossible: the extradition of Putin and children’s ombudsman Lvova-Belova to The Hague. In the event of a military defeat against Russia, their extradition to The Hague becomes real.
Daniil Konstantinov, former political prisoner and project manager of the Free Russia Forum, believes: “Due to the military and economic defeat, one can imagine a situation where the Russian elite can oust Putin from power and start negotiations with the West. . I can imagine a situation where Putin’s associates would extradite him to The Hague in order to maintain their positions themselves.
Doctor of law, lecturer at the Free University Elena Lukyanova is convinced that the tribunal will become a reality “because the war crimes committed by the Russian army are so terrible”. Lukyanova also points out: “Over the past decades, the rules of war have changed: the outcome of war cannot be decided by human meat – high technologies play a big role. On the other hand, humanity could not imagine that such crimes are possible today. At the same time, she warns that the tribunal will not be created anytime soon.
Elena Lukyanova
In an interview with the correspondent of the Russian service media, Elena Lukyanova admitted that Putin and Lvova-Belova could be acquitted by the International Criminal Court. “That means there will either be exculpatory evidence or there won’t be enough accusatory evidence. This is what happens as a result of true justice – someone is justified, and someone is condemned and condemned. But even under our Criminal Code, I see he definitely can’t get away with it. This I can say with certainty! We open Chapter 34 “Crimes against the Peace and Security of Mankind” and look at – “Planning, Preparing, Initiating or Waging a War of Aggression”, “Public Calls for the Initiation of a War of Aggression”, “Development, production, accumulation, acquisition or sale of weapons of mass destruction”, “Use of prohibited means and methods of warfare” – a whole bunch of “roses”! But with spikes.
Lukyanova clarifies: “The ICC cannot convict the above crimes. But there are crimes against humanity, genocides and war crimes. Why do we need a series of courts? Because the International Criminal Court only has certain categories of acts for which it can judge, and for the rest, it cannot yet. And so many crimes have been committed, and they are so new and unusual that nothing has been written about them anywhere. Therefore, a specific alternative court is needed.
Another panel discussion at the IV Anti-War Conference was titled “The Collapse of Russian Aggression and Victory for Ukraine. Consequences for Russian domestic and foreign policy.
TV journalist Yevgeny Kiselev took part online. He stressed that there is no certainty that Ukraine’s victory and the liberation of all occupied territories will lead to the fall of Putin’s regime. “In place of Russia, a great, great North Korea can be built,” Kiselev said.
Yevgenia Chirikova, coordinator of the activatica.org portal, pointed out that after military defeats in Russia, a period of reforms often begins. “I see how grateful Ukrainians are for Russian help in Europe. These people can give birth to a democratic society in Russia. Our task is to survive and not to quarrel,” she said. As for the economic and political sanctions imposed on Russia after the start of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they, according to Chirikova, “are not adequate for Russian aggression”.
Opposition politician Gennady Gudkov said the collapse of the current Russian regime could be quick and there was a need to prepare for it. “And if Putin, after the victory of Ukraine, Putin remained in the Kremlin? People’s revolution after Ukraine’s victory can wait a long time. Navalny and Yashin will be in prison for a long time, and we can only help them through public censorship (against the authorities),” Gudkov said.
He suggested creating a “big media” for the “deep Russian people” to, in his own words, prevent a war of all against all.
Political geographer and publicist Dmitry Oreshkin believes that Putin’s real defeat will be the loss of Crimea and, to begin with, the inability to take Bakhmut.
“The regime can collapse not in the sense of democracy, but in the sense of such ‘wonderful people’ like Kadyrov, Prigozhin and so on. A single Russian space will not be kept. The big cities are looking towards Europe, and the provinces are looking elsewhere,” continues the expert.
Dmitry Oreshkin
“I don’t see a beautiful Russia of the future. Ukraine decides the fate of Russia. We ourselves do not have the resources, they were wasted in 2011,” concluded Oreshkin.
In conversation with a media Russian Service correspondent, the expert said the new wave of emigration from Russia that began last year could last a long time as things get worse in Russia. , the more people will want to leave: “Not for ideological reasons, but there will simply be nowhere to realize, an inconspicuous future. You can call it economic problems. But there are also social problems – the lack of medicine, the lack of a good education for children, because not everyone likes their children having to stand up in the morning, so I think that unlike all the waves of previous emigration, it will be such a continuous drain, a drain of brains, a drain of people with willpower, intelligence, a slow demographic catastrophe.
Oreshkin assumes that Putin’s regime will not end with a one-time outbreak, but there will be a slow and prolonged drowning in a “bloody swamp”. “Not everyone will like this prospect, so people will be saved anywhere. Of course, this is desirable – for the developed world, which will benefit accordingly, because it receives a good workforce qualified, bearing the costs of his training, education, treatment, upbringing,” the analyst explained.
The correspondent of the Russian service media spoke with Garry Kasparov, head of the Council of the Foundation for the defense of human rights, co-founder of the Free Russia Forum.
When asked what he thinks the countries of the “collective West” should do to hasten Ukraine’s victory, he replied: “We have to speed up decision-making. Oleg Dunda, People’s Deputy of Ukraine, said that everything that is done is good and right, but money is needed today. There is a war going on and every day Ukraine is paying for these delays with blood.
Garry Kasparov
According to Kasparov, there is a political will to provide more financial and military aid to Ukraine in the West, but there is also the traditional slowness of the bureaucratic machine in deciding when to give planes, when to send tanks and ammunition? “It’s all really dragging on, but it’s also obvious that the winning plan is already literally ‘drawn in’ visually. Everyone understands what needs to be done when it comes to sanctions and arms supply. We need to stop think about what will happen after Ukraine wins Stop speculation that the collapse of Putin’s regime and the potential collapse of Russia are problematic factors in making decisions about supplying Ukraine with everything needed for a quick win,” Kasparov said.
“The Russian opposition must demonstrate that we have every chance of preventing this negative scenario. Nobody knows if this is possible – maybe the disease has already gone too far. But it is clear that the sooner the result is achieved, the more likely our joint efforts will bring results,” said the co-founder of the Free Russia Forum.
According to Kasparov, every conference like this demonstrates that the Russian opposition exists, and the process of developing a common position and creating a joint advisory body that could start conversations with European and American politicians is in full swing. full. “First with the Europeans, specifies the politician, because they are now looking for partners to negotiate. And everything is going in the right direction.”
