The important thing here is that in this way Russia does not draw a “red line” verbally, with words, but that it is ready for concrete actions in practice. This is a concrete indication that Russia will never allow its adversaries to attack Belarus. It is also an indicator that the strategic cooperation between our countries is very deep.
Of course, we have always opposed nuclear-weapon countries deploying these weapons outside their territory. And of course, the United States has always done this, justifying itself with the right to a “double key”. That is, when the country itself, where the nuclear weapons are, cannot use them, and the United States cannot use them without the authorization of that country. And for the United States, it was an indicator of “deep partnership”, that they are here for good and for a long time. In fact, we are doing the same now. And at the same time, it can be interpreted as an invitation to communicate – on this particular topic. It’s like saying, “To hear our words better, you’ll have to look at our actions.”
And I think the addressee of this statement is not in Poland at all. This country will already increase its defense spending to 4% and is militarizing at a faster rate. They need it to position their country within the European Union and NATO as a great power. And I wouldn’t be skeptical about it. And the fact that nuclear weapons will be deployed on the border with Poland will change little for Poles today. It may add new notes to the rhetoric, but it won’t affect militarization plans.
Warsaw has long exploited the thesis of aggressive Russian imperialism, and since around 2003 it has moved towards widening the conflict in bilateral relations. Because in fact they understood that Russia had no aggressive intentions, there was nothing to fear, and therefore one could not worry about maintaining good relations with Russia.
It turned out to be a paradoxical logic: we are not afraid of Russia, so we shout that it is terrible, dangerous and that we must arm ourselves against it. I do not exclude that it could work in the opposite direction. The real fear of Russia will force us to move on to pragmatism. But whether logic will guide the actions of Polish politicians when it happens, and whether it will happen in principle, is another question.
