China is learning lessons from the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine to better prepare for a possible war with Taiwan. On this subject writing The New York Times (NYT) relied on an analysis of about 100 news articles in which the Chinese military and researchers assess the fighting.
In particular, Chinese analysts observe how Russia uses hypersonic missiles to destroy Ukrainian ammunition and fuel depots. In addition, researchers are interested in Ukraine’s experience in the use of Starlink satellite communication systems, which allow the Ukrainian armed forces to coordinate attacks and repel Russian attempts to disconnect them from communication. . Analysts concluded that China needs to develop a similar low-orbit satellite system and find ways to disable similar competing systems.
Ritchie B. Tongo/EPA/TASS
The PRC also believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons deterred Western countries from directly intervening in the Ukrainian conflict. This, in turn, could contribute to the expansion of China’s nuclear program, experts say.
“Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy certainly played a role in preventing US-led NATO from daring to go directly to war,” wrote the major general and professor at the National Defense University. from Beijing, Meng Xiangqing, in the Guangming Daily.
An article in China’s Defense Science & Technology Industry magazine says Beijing needs to pay attention to Russian military logistics and supply shortages. The memo’s authors noted that Beijing must prepare for similar challenges if China engages in “sea crossings” and “island seizure” during the war. The NYT believes that analysts are thus implicitly referring to a possible invasion of Taiwan.
The confrontation between China and Taiwan has been going on since 1949, after Taipei declared independence from China. China does not recognize the sovereignty of the island state, it does not recognize it, although in fact it does not control it. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that China will seek reunification with Taiwan and has even allowed the island state to regain control by force.
Chinese analysts, writes the NYT, also conclude that the PRC must maintain its large ground troops even with the expansion of naval and air forces, and also urge the Chinese military to learn how to use drones, communications and weapons more effectively. satellites.
“(The Chinese) will try to incorporate those lessons into their training, their officer training and their doctrine, which is currently being revised,” said Joel Watnow, senior fellow at the National Defense University in Washington. .
In addition, Chinese researchers draw attention to the equipment and intelligence that NATO countries provided to Ukraine to counter Russian troops. According to Lyle Goldstein, an expert at the Defense Priorities think tank, China likely observed how Kiev received thousands of Stinger and Javelin man-portable air defense systems from the West, and analyzed what the consequences would be if Taiwan was increasing its stockpiles of such weapons.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense press service via AP
Learning from Russia’s experience could convince China that it can win a hypothetical conflict, according to experts interviewed by the NYT. According to the newspaper, China’s official military budget is $225 billion, nearly three times that of Russia. At the same time, China’s enormous manufacturing and technological capacity allows it to produce large numbers of drones and other weapons that Russian troops lack, the NYT notes.
Many states around the world have begun to “learn lessons” from the military conflict in Ukraine and have begun to reconsider the approach to organizing their armed forces, Bloomberg wrote in mid-February. For example, some countries have realized the need to increase the number of projectiles produced, increase military production, modernize equipment and increase defense spending. The agency also noted that, for example, China, on the eve of a possible war with Taiwan, is also studying Russian experience in the use of drones and electronic warfare.
