In recent days, the ruble began to fall faster, and at the beginning of this week it returned to April 2022, almost reaching the mark of 80 rubles. Experts in the field of economics say that several negative factors are now weighing on the ruble at the same time. This is discussed in Material Life.
The ruble will continue to fall if the rise in oil prices does not continue. According to experts, oil is unlikely to support the ruble in the long term.
“Market participants are concerned about the possibility of a further decline in oil and gas export revenues and an expansion of the budget deficit. The budget deficit for the first ten days of March amounted to 3 .3 trillion rubles, exceeding the figure set for the whole of 2023. According to the results of the first quarter, a surplus of 4 trillion rubles is expected,” said Vladislav Antonov, financial analyst at BitRiver.
It is difficult to say where the next long-term low for the ruble will be. While the movement of the dollar towards the zone of 80 rubles is likely. If at the same time demand exceeds supply, then the appreciation can only accelerate. This forecast was made by Dmitry Babin. And in this case, everything will then depend on what levels and for how long oil quotations can gain a foothold.
Head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev believes that there are no other prospects for the ruble, except for further decline. In the coming months, the dollar may reach 82 rubles per unit, and the euro – 90 rubles.
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