As in previous weeks, according to the RTL/ntv-Trendbarometer, the SPD, Greens and FDP maintain a combined figure of 43%. The union of the CDU and the CSU remains stable at 29%. The SPD, which lost a percentage point, has 18%, equaling Bündnis90/DieGrünen. The FDP gained one point and reached 7% for the first time since January.
If the elections were held today, the left might not enter the Bundestag. According to the current poll, they would have obtained the same 4% as last week, when Sarah Wagenknecht announced her refusal to be reappointed to the Bundestag by Die Linke. This indicator is not enough to enter the Bundestag, especially since after the adopted reform of electoral legislation, direct mandates will no longer help. The left has received three direct mandates in 2021, which is the minimum required to enter parliament with a group of deputies.
Habek loses support
The AfD’s approval rating is also stable at 14% for the fourth straight week. 10% of respondents would vote for one of the other parties. In general, in March, the values only changed by one or two percentage points, if at all. So the polls show more party continuity than you might expect after a heated debate – especially over the heating law.
However, Robert Habek, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, lost ground somewhat. At the beginning of the year, in direct comparison with Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, the green politician was still at the 20% level in terms of preference for of chancellor. In contrast, in the latest trend barometer, only 17% would vote for Habek, 23% for Scholz and 21% for Merz. This means that the Chancellor and the CDU leader each lost one point compared to the previous week. If the Greens had replaced Habek with Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in the race for chancellery, she would have won 20% of the vote, Scholz 24% and Merz 23%.
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