When Finland was admitted to NATO this week, a small but vocal group of Ukrainian supporters gathered outside the alliance’s headquarters and chanted over the loudspeaker: “Ukraine needs NATO! Ukraine in NATO! Ukraine needs fighter jets!
Russia’s war in Ukraine prompted Finland to join NATO in order to obtain security guarantees based on the principle that if one of the allies is attacked, all the others will come to its aid.
Sweden, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Georgia also want to join the alliance, which now has 31 countries.
Rushing to NATO and Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden and his colleagues, who will meet in Lithuania on July 11-12, want to offer Ukraine something big and powerful that would meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s expectations after more than a year of war that left tens of thousands dead and millions forced from their homes.
However, NATO diplomats wonder: what exactly can Kiev be offered?
The problem is simple. Most major NATO members believe that a country should not be admitted to the alliance when it is at war. In what form is Ukraine ready to join the bloc? What will its limits look like? Will Zelenskyy agree to join without occupied Crimea and Donbass?
Some countries closer to Russia’s borders, well aware of their difficult history with the neighboring giant, are ready to support Ukraine’s membership now.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said there was no point in discussing Ukraine’s entry if Russia took over.
“Ukraine will become a member of the alliance,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “At the same time, we all understand that to achieve meaningful progress on this issue, we must first ensure that Ukraine takes over as a sovereign and independent state.”
According to the organization, after the Russian invasion in February 2022, NATO and its members provided aid to Ukraine worth around 150 billion euros.
Some members of the alliance, on a bilateral or collective basis, have supplied Kiev with military equipment, including anti-tank weapons, artillery shells and tanks, for a total amount of around 65 billion euros.
NATO as an organization does not supply weapons to Ukraine. This is the line that the 31 members of the alliance refuse to cross together. They fear being drawn into a larger war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
The prevailing proposal is to make better use of the “comprehensive aid package” created for Ukraine in 2016, a few years before the war, to help the country maintain its security and, according to the official description, “carry out scale based on NATO standards, Euro-Atlantic principles and best experience.”
The idea is to create a fund, which, according to diplomats, could amount to around 500 million euros and which will operate for about ten years. To date, the total pledged contributions to this fund are estimated at almost €200 million.
The amount seems small compared to other types of support, but it is specifically aimed at reforms to help Ukraine help itself.
Stoltenberg dared not publicly name the amount or the terms. This may create expectations in Kiev that the Allies may ultimately fall short.
“I think we will have a significant amount of money and a commitment to sustain for many years,” he said. “I think I should be careful to be specific in this announcement.”
Barring major surprises, unpredictable turns in the war, or perhaps its end, this package and official statement seems to be the most NATO leaders can offer Ukraine at their meeting in Vilnius. in July.
