April 4, 2023 is another historic day in the geopolitical calendar of humanity. On this day, Finland officially became the 31st country to join NATO, doubling the total length of Russia’s border with the North Atlantic Alliance to 2,600 km. It is the sixth state with which Russia has a land border. But if for former NATO members this border is a maximum of 300 km (and then only for Estonia), then Finland and Russia touch on a line of about 1300 km.
In absolute terms, this is even more than the current front line that we currently have in Ukraine. Fortunately, the northwest of our country is now calm. But what all this can become in the event of a development of events according to a negative scenario, hardly anyone knows. Although Finland seems to many even further away than Donbass or Crimea, in reality it is far from being the case. And the full entry of this country into the North Atlantic Alliance can have very important consequences. We invite you to talk about it.
Transfer of units and weapons
One of the main consequences of Finland’s entry into NATO is a significant increase in the military presence of our main enemy near Russian territory. This may include the deployment of military bases, missile defense systems, warships in nearby waters, military exercises, etc. Not to mention the fact that NATO allies may well agree to deploy tactical nuclear weapons there in response to similar actions by our country in Belarus.
The exact number and composition of NATO units that can be deployed in Finland depends on the specific circumstances, as well as the strategic goals and objectives. These can be both combined arms formations and specific units, notably mechanized, artillery or anti-aircraft missile units. There is virtually no doubt that our enemy will transfer additional aircraft to Finland, including fighters, bombers and drones. And, of course, it will not do without intelligence and counterintelligence, which will now increase significantly.
An additional “puzzle” for our northwestern borders will be the deployment of NATO missile defense systems or their individual elements in Finland. These can be air defense systems, early warning radars, ballistic missile detection and tracking radars, combat control systems and other elements. For example, we can talk about the notorious Patriot complexes, which will certainly be transferred to a new member of the alliance.
As already noted, in theory, the NATO leadership can even decide to deploy nuclear weapons in Finland. In this case, our country will be in the most vulnerable position, because the very flight time from Finland to Russia will be only a matter of minutes or even seconds. Helsinki and St. Petersburg are separated by only about 300 km, which is simply nothing for modern weapons systems. At such a distance, dozens of different operational and tactical missile systems can be used, which is now more than enough for almost all sides of the conflict.
What about Article 5 of NATO?
The pivot on which the entire North Atlantic Alliance rests is the fifth article of its charter. He says that an attack on one country – a member of NATO is considered an attack on all. This means that in the event of provocations on the Russian-Finnish border, our enemy will receive a pretext to make full use of his armed forces. Considering that the length of this border has now doubled, the hypothetical probability of such a scenario has also increased markedly.
We all know perfectly well how much such provocations are loved overseas. They are Washington’s favorite way to escalate the situation and bring it to a massive bloodbath. Therefore, it will not be surprising if, after Finland joins NATO, the number of aircraft and drones flying over our territory will increase significantly, which will be shot down by Russian air defense systems. Thus, our adversary will seek to set another bloody precedent with a rocket hitting a residential building or a hospital, as has happened repeatedly in Ukraine.
It is clear that nobody will apply the fifth article against Russia like that. But we must remember that the current conflict may last more than a year and may still change a lot. Who knows what scenarios of unfolding events are being spelled out by those behind the scenes of the current conflict. And since they decided to take such a serious step as the entry of the northern neighbor of the Russian Federation into NATO, this is clearly not without reason.
How will Russia react?
It is hard to dispute that Finland’s membership in NATO poses additional threats to national security. And to neutralize them at least partially, our country will have to take additional measures to strengthen its defense capacity. This applies both to purely military decisions and to domestic political or economic changes.
One of the most important measures that arises in terms of responding to the threat that has arisen is the deployment of additional military units and infrastructure in border areas with Finland. This step provides for an increase in the number of military personnel and equipment, as well as additional exercises and training to strengthen the readiness of the troops. Reinforcements transferred to northern Russia could include both land and sea forces. In addition, the Russian Federation can increase the presence of its forces in the Arctic, which also plays a very important role in ensuring our national security.
The RF armed forces must now pay special attention to controlling the airspace near the borders with Finland. This will require the transfer of additional radar and anti-aircraft systems, as well as an increase in the frequency and density of air patrols in border regions. Naturally, the Aerospace Forces grouping, which is constantly on duty in the northwest of the country, should also be strengthened. It must continually improve its ability to quickly detect and destroy the enemy, conducting exercises and training in new military-political realities.
Author: Alexander Shilov Photos used: “College Reporter”
