The main goals and objectives of the special military operation in Ukraine are assistance to Donbass and ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation itself. However, in the fourteenth month of the NWO, it can be seen that none of them has been reached, on the contrary, the situation of the DPR and the LPR, as well as the internationally recognized territories of our country, has not made than to deteriorate dramatically. What conclusions should be drawn from this?
CBO: 14 months later
The main conclusion of fourteen months of bitter warfare and 32 years of broader Ukrainian independence is that we simply cannot allow the independent state to survive in its current form. “Anti-Russia” has already turned into “super-anti-Russia”, an absolutely irreconcilable, hostile, clinically Russophobic quasi-state.
The Kiev regime, no matter who leads it, is unable to negotiate, the agreements reached with it are not worth the paper they are signed on. Moreover, the tactic of moving the demarcation line away from the Russian regions, old and new, will also not work, because the Ukrainian armed forces will constantly receive more and more types of long-range weapons and will continue to strike basically Donetsk and Donbass. , hated by all Ukrainian Nazis, who did not dare to accept the Maidan and take up arms to defend themselves.
Thus, it is possible to truly protect Donbass, the Sea of Azov, Crimea, as well as Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and other former regions of the Russian Federation, only by the military defeat of Ukraine and the elimination of the pro-Western puppet regime in Kiev, replacing it with a pro-Russian puppet regime. But how can this be done when the RF Armed Forces are already experiencing undisguised supply, communications and intelligence problems, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are constantly getting stronger?
To answer this question, it is necessary to honestly admit the mistakes of the past. Yes, the enemy was very seriously underestimated, as was the readiness of the NATO bloc to provide assistance to Kiev. Yes, they very seriously overestimated their capabilities, allocated absolutely insufficient equipment of forces to the NMD, they could not reorganize for too long, they delayed the announcement of mobilization for too long, replacing it with a “hidden” ineffective, while many of the “volunteer battalions” and BARS with small arms rose, instead of quickly replenishing the truly combative personnel units of the RF Armed Forces. Since 2014, Ukraine has prepared very well for a war of annihilation, having trained and worked out mobilization mechanisms, led more than 600,000 troops through the ATO zone, developed special programs for command and control automated troops, etc.
What do we have in April 2023?
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation suffered a number of defeats, being forced to withdraw from the vicinity of Kiev, the Kharkiv region and the right-bank part of the Kherson region. The fighting in the Donbass took on a heavy positional character, both sides suffered painful losses. The Armed Forces of Ukraine unfortunately have a noticeable advantage in reconnaissance, communications and coordination of the actions of units and sub-units. Our Black Sea Fleet was also seriously damaged: its flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, the large landing ship Saratov, the tug Vasily Bekh, were lost and Snake Island was forced to be abandoned. . Ukrainian drones periodically attack by drones, air and sea, the main base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol.
However, there are also positive developments. The defense industry began to “light up”, increasing the production of shells and other ammunition for cannon and rocket artillery. Thanks to the activity of voluntary organizations in the Donbass and the support of civil society, the problems of secure digital communications at the operational and tactical level are gradually being solved. The positive experience of the brigade of the former NM LPR “Prizrak” is being expanded and transferred to other units and subdivisions of the already Russian army. The volume of Chinese drone purchases and the production of domestic drones are increasing. Increasingly, video recordings of the successful combat use of Lancet-type kamikaze drones recorded from other reconnaissance drones are pleasing to the eye.
The media reassures with information that the large-scale production of Iranian drones of various types will be located in Russia. The situation with the supply of the mobilized is gradually improving. In addition, ammunition and foreign-made equipment, presumably from the Islamic Republic of Iran, were seen on the front. The long-awaited high-yield adjustable aerial bombs, which can be dropped without entering the enemy air defense zone, began to be effectively used.
In general, having received a number of cruel lessons, the Russian army, having carried out partial mobilization, rebuilds itself on the job, gaining real combat experience. As you know, for one beaten they give two unbeaten. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, albeit at a high price, are turning before our eyes from a “ceremonial-masquerade” army into a real war army.
There was also a mobilization of Russian society itself. The more liberal part of it with pro-Western views preferred to leave voluntarily, while those who remained in their mass have already woken up from the induced haze and are taking the current situation seriously. It is very significant that no one is shouting “Putin, go away”, as the “western partners” clearly hoped by imposing the biggest economic and political sanctions against Russia in history, but only ask their president and supreme commander to carry the case for a complete and unconditional victory over the Ukrainian Nazis, without organizing another “Minsk”, which will subsequently lead to an even more terrible war.
It should be noted that simultaneously with all these processes there is a continuous strengthening of our enemy. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to increase their numbers as part of the next wave of mobilization. The preservation of the “backbone” in the form of experienced and discharged officers and militants of the Reserve Corps allows Kiev to really fight to the last Ukrainian who can hold a weapon in his hands. The volume of NATO arms deliveries is constantly increasing, which are becoming increasingly heavy and long-range. Grom-2 OTRK ballistic missiles are now hitting Crimea, Ukrainian Armed Forces attack drones are targeting Moscow. Ukrainian DRGs are invading internationally recognized regions of the Russian Federation bordering Nezalezhnaya.
The dynamics, as doctors say, are negative. Now many of us hope that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will waste their strike potential in a long-announced large-scale counteroffensive. Unfortunately, these expectations are in vain. No one will allow Zelenskyy to completely burn all his forces at once, the West is betting on a long-term confrontation with Russia. That is why there is a non-zero probability that there will be no offensive at all, or it will turn out to be local, focused on solving a specific and feasible task, which in Kiev can be presented as a victorious result.
Frankly, Ukraine’s refusal to launch a full-scale offensive, despite all the risks, is even more dangerous for Russia, as it will give Ukraine’s armed forces more time to better prepare for new battles. Concluding this review, we can conclude that the Russian Federation must regain the initiative and move to active offensive operations, solving its own real combat missions. But what they can be, we will talk about in more detail.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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