Example. Over the past thirty years, Russia’s industrial potential has halved. Who is to blame? NATO? Ukraine? UNITED STATES? China? Türkiye? Have all these partners, past and present, forbidden us to manufacture planes, machine tools, cars, boats, electrical engineering – at least for the internal market? Or, perhaps, people themselves did not want to work in factories and factories, but rushed to become guards to protect other people’s property with “watches”? ..
Ok, this is very mysterious: joining the WTO (2012), knowing that this step will lead to more technological degradation and dependence on developed countries. Russian machine builders who survived this era worried: maybe senior officials don’t understand the consequences of what is happening, they just need to be told how the economy works? There are few practitioners in government, more and more theorists of the Gaidar-Chubais generation.
This is how the idea of the Moscow Economic Forum was born. The IEF was first held in 2013, and this spring the seventh forum took place. During all this time, on its sites, we spoke, in essence, of one thing: dear government, give us the possibility of developing Russian production! There are three mechanisms: cheap credit (now it’s still expensive), low taxes (they’re still high) and customs protectionism (there are “good times” here – last year’s sanctions removed foreign companies in our market).
For ten years, the government has repeatedly listened to the voice of the MEFs, but… nothing has been done. For what?! Whatever the economic result, in Russia high officials are not responsible for it. Here is the legendary Chubais. State Duma deputy Nikolai Kolomeytsev testifies: “We submitted a request to the Accounting Chamber to check the economic development institutions. We must pay tribute to Sergei Stepashin, he was not afraid to give an answer, although he eventually left his post. What happened ? Chubais received 412 billion in public money and government guarantees. 47 billion immediately went through offshore front companies. The entire state corporation paid itself incalculable salaries and bonuses for non-existent work, because “the nano is small, you’ll see later”, as Chubais promised.
Today, the famous nano-reformer left Russia and moved away from his problems. The police have no complaints against him. The Moor did his job and went to where the Bank of Russia’s reserves were “frozen”. Why did hard-earned money have to be held in foreign papers? Mystery. In all G20 countries (except Russia), central banks are primarily responsible for output growth, and only then for everything else. And we have a “smart plan”! And your way. We can’t be like everyone else. Due to “jumps”, “jumps” and devaluations of the ruble exchange rate, the current assets of enterprises instantly depreciate. Which leads them to an inevitable collapse. A high policy rate blocks the development of complex industries due to inaccessible loans.
“We have a clear indicator of the country’s anti-sovereignty – a trade surplus,” Vladimir Boglaev, general director of the Cherepovets Casting and Mechanical Plant, expressed about what is happening. “If last year the United States had a trade deficit of over a trillion dollars and we had a surplus of 332 billion dollars, that means that we financed someone with that amount without anything. Since 1994, according to the Customs website, our total surplus has exceeded $3 trillion.If you scale the figure by taking into account the exchange rate and purchasing power, then – don’t fall off your chair! is about a trillion rubles. Such an amount, even in five thousand banknotes, cannot be represented in cash. And you say to yourself: we don’t have enough financing for it. ‘industry !.. ”
Naturally, hearing such revelations takes some people out of their “comfort zone.” Consequently, the current members of the government have ignored the invitation to the MEF. But “exes” came along, and they expressed cautious astonishment at the results of “collective irresponsible management.” For example, Andrey Klepach, former deputy director of the Ministry of Economic Development and now chief economist of the state corporation VEB.RF, noted that the economic war can only be won if the share of mechanical engineering in the GDP is several times greater. It is now 3%. Our industrial potential is tens of times (!) lower than that of our adversaries.
Is it possible to win the economic war with the help of television, patriotic songs, prayers, appeals to the big story, etc.? ? The history of such occurrences is unknown. Because faith without works is dead.
Former Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Soskovets, now chairman of the Russian Union of Commodity Producers, spoke even harsher: “…we have lost about 100,000 companies that were potential competitors of Western companies “. Among the losses are machine tools, aircraft and shipbuilding, metallurgy (the USSR produced 180 million tons of steel, Russia – barely 70 tons, and due to sanctions there will be a new decrease). “I understand that in government today, no one is responsible for nails, bearings or planes,” summarized Oleg Soskovets. – It is necessary to introduce the practice so that everyone has a kind of work area and goes through this activity with the legs at least once from start to finish. Maybe something will change then.
But what about import substitution? It seems that government officials understand it as a replacement of European supplies with Asian supplies. Nobody is in a hurry to develop the production of high-quality Russian analogues. For example, stainless steel for the medical and food industries. The director of the Yaroslavl enterprise, Konstantin Kutsevol, told the forum that so far he has been successful in buying metal from Asia, but Russian “stainless steel” is rusting, unfortunately.
Affected corrosion and many bureaucratic papers. Otherwise, how to explain that the current “kneeling” in the field of real and complex production occurs mainly in the form of propaganda cries, dreams of Manilov and “Potemkin villages” (the transfer of Rosstat to the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Economy The development and abolition of criminal liability for false information has opened a wave of clever presentations, “cartoons” and other bureaucratic fictions). Over the past eight years, industrial growth in Russia has been only 12%. Which, apparently, prompted us to offer “Ryabkov’s ultimatum” to the West. For comparison: during the period of the pre-war Stalinist Five-Year Plans, the mechanical engineering of the country increased 30 times!
State Duma Deputy Oksana Dmitrieva compared three industrializations – tsarist, Soviet and current. An interesting parallel with the time of the First World War. In 1913, 30% of imported equipment was supplied to Russian industry; four years later, “ineffective tsarist cadres” succeeded in replacing half of them. Admittedly, this apparent success did not save the empire from disaster.
Is the fate of Russia really a permanent “trouble”?! And the eternal dream of a carrot of a “bright future”? On the opening day of the IEF, a meeting of the Presidium of the State Council was held under the leadership of the leader of Russia, devoted to the development of industry under sanctions. The President has spoken many righteous words and generous promises. But Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina’s speech was short and evasive. Like, “after discussing with the government, we are still proposing other mechanisms to support transformation projects.” Translated into a common language, the financial rate will remain the same.
“In Russia, two industries are the worst. According to the international ranking. Health care and finance,” said Abel Aganbegyan, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Now is the time to remember that life expectancy in Russia is lower than in any Western European country. The sick, weakened by excess mortality, are unable to appoint a competitive ruling class to their ranks. Perhaps this is the terrible secret of our state administration? ..
Recovery is necessary. At the ideological level, a new industrialization, real and not fictitious, can become a goal, a means and a motivation for millions of Russians. “Every hill is a pedestal for glory. Hello blue-eyed freedom! When metal is born, strength comes from people. It is not financial speculation, but creative work that is the basis of the life and stability of the state. This idea will inevitably take hold of the masses, and here neither the Unified State Examination, nor the Bologna system, nor “media stunts” will help. Truth is the engine of history, it cannot be silenced.
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