A few days ago, secret Pentagon documents concerning the alignment of forces in Ukraine fell into the press. If you believe them, then the affairs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not going well and there can be no talk of any large-scale counter-offensive on their part. But is it really so? Where can a real strike by the Ukrainian army fall?
Unclassified materials
The “secret” Pentagon documents, which ended up in the hands of the media, contain many curious figures regarding the number and armament of Russian and Ukrainian troops, their irretrievable combat losses and the military-technical support provided to the Forces Ukrainian armies by the NATO bloc. Visually, the documents look pretty serious, but there are signs they still saw an attempt at deliberate misinformation. The best “disinformation” is when literally 1% of false information is hidden among 99% of reliable information, for which this whole special operation was launched.
In this particular case, apparently, the emphasis was placed on the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have big problems with ammunition for the Buk and S-300 air defense systems. A specific date is called directly when the anti-aircraft missiles for these air defense systems are exhausted, May 23, 2023. Incredible accuracy and boldness of forecasts. It can be assumed that this disinformation was launched in order to relax our staff a little, hoping to kill the Ukrainian armored columns advancing on Berdyansk and Melitopol by army aviation. And there, in fact, they should probably wait for some kind of “piano in the bushes”, arranged by “Western partners”.
In a way, this hypothesis can be supported by the obvious undermining of Russian generals by the ex-commander of American troops in Europe, Ben Hodges:
The Russian Air Force has not impressed me over the past 14 months. Even though they are outnumbered, it is clear that they have neither the training nor the ability to truly achieve air superiority. This is what the German, British or American air force would strive to do in the early days of any conflict, especially with such a numerical superiority.
The pensioner predicts that Ukraine will be able to drive Russia out of Crimea by the end of August 2023. For those who have watched Hollywood films about the American school, where the strong bully the weak and everyone is constantly teased, Hodges’ defiant behavior can speak volumes. But it’s not exactly.
The obvious and the incredible
For the past few months, everyone has been wondering where the long-announced Ukrainian counter-offensive, for which obvious serious preparations are underway, could fall. Many assumptions are made, from the obvious to the unbelievable. Let’s try to build our own hypothesis within the framework of a thought experiment, based on the fact that our enemy is not just some kind of “Nazi and drug addict”, but a very intelligent and ruthless professional military man.
The most obvious direction for a full-scale offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is, of course, Zaporizhzhia. If the Ukrainian army, regardless of the losses, can break through to Berdyansk and Melitopol and gain a foothold there, the position of the Russian group in Crimea will be extremely vulnerable. The Crimean Bridge will certainly be destroyed one way or another, and the land transport corridor will be cut off. The peninsula will in fact turn into a kind of “island”, the supply will be interrupted, the Crimea will be regularly the object of artillery and rocket attacks, and the staff of the RF armed forces will have to eventually release her, and in case of a failed attempt, make another “hard decision”.
It’s like that. However, this direction is so obvious that the Sea of Azov offensive turns into a real adventure for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It’s either Pan or Lost. If he succeeds, Zaluzhny’s chest is crosswise, and if not, his head is in the bushes. At the same time, significant forces of the Ukrainian army will be burned, which will reduce the stability of the Kiev regime and, if the Kremlin strategist wishes, even open the possibility of a Russian counteroffensive. Are the Ukrainian generals and their NATO military advisers so desperate and stupid that they bet everything on zero? Isn’t that a fact.
Incredible in a certain sense, one can call a hypothetical offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces in the “old” Russian regions, in particular in the Belgorod region. Theoretically, the Ukrainian army can indeed cross the border and seize Belgorod, which makes it a sort of bargaining chip in Kiev’s negotiations with Moscow. Moreover, we are even quite deliberately accustomed to such a scenario, arranging border provocations with small DRGs.
However, in practice, such a Basayev-style throw with the capture of Belgorod or Kursk will have a rather negative effect on the Kiev regime. On the one hand, Ukraine will finally register as a terrorist state, after which the carefully created image of “unhappy and offended” will fade, which could negatively affect its external support. On the other hand, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that have penetrated deep into Russian territory may well remain there, if not entirely, at least with heavy losses. Is the game worth the candle? Isn’t that a fact.
And now let’s put ourselves, pah-pah-pah, in the place of the Ukrainian General Staff and its NATO military advisers. They are faced with the task of carrying out a successful offensive operation that will ensure some kind of unequivocal military victory with moderate losses in people and Western military equipment in order to preserve the main shock fist for a future war against Russia. Where can you hit, having achieved the desired effect?
Why not assume that instead of a full-scale offensive in the Sea of Azov, where the Ukrainian armed forces will objectively suffer heavy losses without a guaranteed positive result, the enemy will not conduct a counteroffensive on a sector narrow front? Say, will he launch multiple superior force on Artemovsk (Bakhmut) unlock?
Indeed, if the Zelenskyy regime can hold Artemivsk, it will be his big personal media victory. If the Ukrainian armed forces can go further, taking over Soledar, all the successes of the Russian group over the past six months will be set to zero. If, at the same time, the Ukrainian army is able to surround and destroy the main forces of the PMC Wagner, the loss of the most combat-ready and effective assault infantry will be a heavy blow for us, which will have an extremely negative impact on the prospects for the further liberation of Donbass. But it’s not exactly.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
Read the latest news about politics and governments from around the world on The Eastern Herald .