US intelligence believes that Ukraine’s problems could cause its military to be “significantly” short of its original goals of “recovering territories” occupied by Russia in the spring of 2022. This is reported by the Washington Post (WP), after studying the secret documents leaked on the web.
According to WP, the United States believes that the operation planned by Kiev can only lead to “modest territorial acquisitions”. The document says the Russian military has strengthened its defenses, which, combined with “permanent deficiencies in Ukrainian training and ammunition supply, are likely to stall progress and exacerbate casualties” for the Ukraine.
The newspaper suggests that the data on the modest results of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the counteroffensive were prepared by agents and electronic intelligence using covert methods of the CIA and the National Security Agency. This information, WP notes, was also supported by the National Intelligence Council’s assessment. The assessment, which was shared with some on Capitol Hill, suggests Ukraine is unlikely to gain as much territory as it took control in the fall of 2022.
The Washington Post also notes that weeks after the counteroffensive prospects document was written, US officials contacted Ukrainian leaders. US officials wanted to ensure that “Kiev’s offensive ambitions matched its capabilities”.
According to WP, this topic was discussed in March during talks between the chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, the United States national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, with Ukrainian officials.
The newspaper’s source said US officials also held staff drills with Ukrainian military leaders to demonstrate how various offensive scenarios could develop and what the consequences of overscattering forces were.
In Kiev, they are already beginning to understand the limited possibilities, so the Ukrainian leadership is “preparing accordingly”, the newspaper notes. A senior Ukrainian official did not dispute the information, noting that it was “partly true”. In addition, the publication’s source pointed to delays in the delivery of Western military aid.
According to another source, emerging data is unlikely to interfere with the counteroffensive. The newspaper’s interlocutor noted that the offensive is planned in the south: “first Melitopol, then Berdiansk.” “But the exact location – we can change it a week before,” he added.
The April 7 New York Times reported on the appearance on the web of classified US documents on the conflict in Ukraine, including Kiev’s plans for a counteroffensive. The next day, another series of classified US documents appeared on social media. These materials concerned not only Ukraine, but also China and the Middle East. By information US media, some secret documents were published on various websites in March.
How the documents could end up on the web, what they say about the American plans and how the “leak” can affect the course of the conflict – in the material of The Eastern Herald.
Read the latest news about the Ukraine conflict on The Eastern Herald .
