Chinese authorities are likely preparing for hostilities against Taiwan, according to Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. He made the statement the next day after the completion of Chinese military exercises near the island. Earlier, the US military raised the high likelihood of a military conflict in Taiwan by 2025. China does not recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty and accuses US politicians of disrespecting China’s territorial integrity .
The Taiwanese government condemns the exercise of the Chinese army (PLA), during which the military simulated a blockade of the island, declared Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu in an interview with CNN. “Look at the military exercises and also their rhetoric – it looks like they (China) are preparing to start a war against Taiwan,” the diplomat said. At the same time, he declined to predict when Beijing might launch a military operation against the island, only stressing that Taipei “should be ready” to push back against the PLA.
In 1949, after the defeat in the civil war against the Communists, the government of the Republic of China and the leadership of the ruling party, the Kuomintang, were evacuated to Taiwan. The Republic of China, which until 1971 represented China at the UN, does not recognize the PRC government, while Beijing considers Taiwan to be an integral part of the PRC. Taiwan’s independence has only been recognized by 13 UN countries. All states that maintain diplomatic relations with Beijing, including the 27 members of the European Union, the United States and Russia, officially recognize Taiwan as part of the PRC.
What are the lessons
The Chinese army exercises in the Taiwan Strait were held from April 7 to 10. By posts Taiwan Ministry of Defense on April 10, 91 planes and 12 PLA ships were involved in the maneuvers. The drills simulated “precision strikes against key targets on the island of Taiwan and adjacent waters”, transmits Chinese television channel CCTV.
The task of the last day of the exercise was to simulate a “blockade” of the island of Taiwan. On April 10, an aircraft carrier strike group (AUG) led by the aircraft carrier Shandong joined the exercises, informed Chinese television channel CGTN. By posts Japanese Ministry of Defense, on March 10, the AUG was spotted 230 km from the Japanese island of Miyako, located east of Taiwan. The Japanese side has recorded at least 120 takeoffs of Chinese planes and helicopters from the aircraft carrier.
The scale of the current maneuvers is even lower than the PLA exercises of August 2022. At that time, China for the first time carried out training firings of ballistic missiles, the flight path of which crossed, among other things, space aircraft over the places of concentration of Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile systems. At the same time, the April exercises were the first in which the Chinese fleet simulated strikes against Taiwan using aircraft carriers, transmitted CNN.
The military maneuvers are China’s reaction to a meeting between Taiwanese Chief of Staff Tsai Ing-wen and US President Kevin McCarthy. Their negotiations pass On April 6, Tsai Ing-wen’s first meeting with the new speaker of the Republican Party’s House of Representatives took place. The dialogue between Tsai and McCarthy took place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, which the Chinese Foreign Ministry said was do on the sanctions list.
Unlike Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August 2022, this time the meeting was decided on American soil so as not to provoke China. According to the Japanese newspaper Nikkei, Taipei is even suggested McCarthy will hold talks via video link, fearing a backlash from China.
Nonetheless, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued harsh criticism of the meeting in California. According statement foreign ministries, the United States and Taiwan ignored China’s warnings, came to an agreement and, under the guise of a transit – officially Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States “in transit” after a trip in Belize and Guatemala – are colluding with the forces seeking to lead Taiwan to independence. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has called Tsai Ing-wen a separatist who since coming to power has not recognized the “1992 consensus”, and the United States should stop curbing China’s development to the detriment of the Taiwan issue.
The 1992 Consensus is an agreement reached between Beijing and Taipei in 1992. Taiwan’s then-ruling Kuomintang party agreed with PRC leaders that ethnically and historically Taiwan is also China and together , they form a single state. Although the parties then disagreed over which of the governments had the right to rule all of China, once consensus was reached, the rapid development of the mainland’s socio-economic ties with the island followed. Tsai Ing-wen, unlike her predecessors, this consensus does not support and promote the idea of creating Taiwan as a state in its own right, with no ties to China.
What is China’s purpose
Mei Shaoquan/Xinhua/TASS
Chinese military exercises also have a longer-term goal: to influence the political balance of power in Taiwan itself. In November 2022, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with a bang lost in regional elections, losing most counties and cities to the Kuomintang party (KMT). Unlike the DPP, the Kuomintang advocates constructive dialogue with Beijing and recognizes the “one China principle”. The main reason for the DPP’s failure is voter concern about a possible escalation between Beijing and Taipei, which the DPP’s policies could lead to.
Taiwan must hold presidential elections in 2024. If the Kuomintang wins, it will become aid in the peaceful reunification of China with the island.
What they say about the risks of war between China and Taiwan
In China itself allowed the use of force to fight “separatists” in Taiwan, but considers it necessary to promote the island’s peaceful integration into mainland China. “We will continue to resolutely fight against Taiwan’s so-called independence, promote the reunification of the motherland, promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, and push forward the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland. “, he added. declared in March, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
Earlier, US General Mike Minihan said the United States should increase troop consolidation near Taiwan by 2025 due to the risk of military conflict by then. “I hope I’m wrong. My instinct tells me that we will fight in 2025.” cited Washington Post publications and the general’s NBC memo.
According to Minihan, elections will be held in Taiwan in 2024, which should give China reason to attack the island. At the same time, the United States will be distracted from foreign policy issues after holding its own presidential elections in November 2024. Minikhan’s note was addressed to commanders of US Air Force air groups, they were instructed to report on battle preparation efforts with the Chinese military.
In September 2022 at the CIA reported on China’s plans to prepare to take control of Taiwan by 2027. In October 2022, Commander-in-Chief of the United States Navy, Admiral Michael Gilday allowed that China could invade Taiwan as soon as possible. “We are talking about a window of opportunity until 2027, but we have to keep in mind that this (the start of the invasion) could happen in 2022 or 2023. <…> I don’t mean to be alarmist when I say this, we just can’t turn a blind eye to this,” Gilday said.
However, in March 2023, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes noted in a congressional hearing that in her view, China does not want an armed conflict over Taiwan. “Our assessment of the situation: China does not want to go to war”, estimate his Bloomberg.
As The Eastern Herald previously wrote, China’s military operation against Taiwan carries many risks, including:
High costs in terms of military resources due to the need to carry out a large-scale landing, to force the Taiwan Strait and to break through Taiwan’s air defense system, which is one of the most powerful in Asia; The reaction of Taiwan’s allies – especially the United States and Japan, which may support the island with arms supplies and even directly join the conflict; The negative reaction of the international community and the imposition of sanctions by the United States, the EU, Japan and South Korea. India and ASEAN countries are also able to limit economic ties with China; Problems of holding territories in the event of a successful military operation, in particular due to the mountainous terrain of Taiwan. It is possible that partisan formations appear on the island, which will be very difficult to remove;
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