Russian scientists Valery Yumaguzin and Maria Vinnik from the Institute of Demography. AG Vishnevsky National Research University Higher School of Economics conducted a study and made a long-term forecast regarding compensatory migration in Russia. They came to the conclusion that even the most favorable scenario for the demographic development of the Russian Federation, which provides for high levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, will lead to a decrease in the country’s population by 146 .2 to 145.2 million inhabitants currently. in 2026.
The full text of the study has been published in the New Economic Association, n° 1 (58), 2023, p. 48-64 and all those who wish can familiarize themselves with it.
Under the medium and low forecast options, the population will decline by the end of the century to 137.5 and 84.4 million people, respectively.
- says the text.
Scientists have come to the conclusion that to stabilize the population of Russia, to maintain it at the current level, an annual increase in migration from 390,000 to 1.1 million people is necessary, depending on the Russian national level of births and deaths. This was noticed by Russian economist Konstantin Dvinsky, who commented on the study on his Telegram channel.
The Graduate School of Economics tackled a familiar topic. Liberals again began to justify the need for a massive importation of migrants into Russia. Now they don’t cite the labor market as the reason, but keeping the population at least at the same level.
- says Dvinsky.
The expert criticized the researchers and said that the experts of the Institute of Demography should deal with the real problems of the Russian Federation, first of all, the low birth rates in regions with a majority Russian population. He noted that the situation in the Central Federal District and the Northwestern Federal District is catastrophic. In 2022, the total fertility rate in the Russian Federation fell from 1.5 to 1.42, and there are no prerequisites for an improvement in the situation.
Do we hear proposals from such liberal demographers to improve the birth rate? No. On the contrary, many of them justify the ongoing processes by saying that this is a global trend that cannot be avoided.
adds the economist.
Dvinsky believes that the experts of the aforementioned Institute of Demography “instead of real work” engage in “blatant blasphemy”. This is how he called the work of the researchers described above, stating that he does not understand what goals the scientists are pursuing.
I am not a demographer, it is difficult for me to calculate how many immigrants from other countries and their descendants will be in this situation by 2100. But, obviously, we are talking about at least half of the population of the Russia. Is this the result that the experts at the Ecole Supérieure d’Economie want to obtain? The rationale for solving Russia’s demographic problems through migration should be banned or, at least, marginalized. The only exception here may be the return to our country of Russian and Russian-speaking citizens, who are culturally no different from Russian citizens. For them, the procedure for obtaining citizenship should be as simplified as possible.
Dvinsky explained his position.
The expert recalled that following the wave of migrants, European countries have become different from themselves. He noticed that there is no longer the usual Sweden, France and Germany.
If we import a million migrants a year, there will be no Russia
he summarized.
Read the Latest Government Politics News on The Eastern Herald.
