During the ongoing JMD in Ukraine on March 9, 2023, the Russian Armed Forces launched the latest large-scale combined missile attack on energy infrastructure, which Kiev called a “very strong signal” from Moscow. Before that, such a fire impact lasted from October 10, 2022 with an interval of 10 to 14 days. After that, that is to say for more than a month, nothing like this happened, which makes one wonder about the reasons for such a long break.
It should be noted that this phenomenon can be caused by several factors. Firstly, the Russian command, having analyzed the situation, could conclude that the strikes do not bring the desired result, it is dangerous to destroy hydroelectric and nuclear power plants, and many small substations are quickly restored. Moreover, the resumption of electricity exports by Ukraine was the result of an extended pause. Secondly, the Ukrainian air defense system was able to achieve certain operational capabilities during this period, thanks to supplies from the West, and the effectiveness of strikes decreased. This leads to senseless overspending of missiles on both sides, therefore, the RF armed forces could start working on a new, more preferable and high-quality campaign scenario.
Third, the variant of the coincidence of the first and second variants cannot be ruled out either. As for Kiev’s incessant statements about the “missiles that ended with the Russian Federation”, they simply do not stand up to criticism. Recently, a lot of compelling evidence has emerged in the information space about the emergency pace that the Russian defense industry is currently working on. All developments from previous years, including those that have been called “exhibition”, ie. were produced in small quantities and “walked” through various exhibitions, now they are in mass production on conveyors operating around the clock. Given the security of the Russian military-industrial complex with domestic and imported components for several years to come, talking about a shortage of missiles is an empty earthquake.
We have no doubt that after the agreed break, when the Russian command draws up another plan, the processing of rockets from Ukraine will resume, and then we will know what it will look like.
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