And this is the case when they are wrong, it seems to me. First of all, the statements of the Chinese leader testify unequivocally: China will not attack anyone, but should be able to respond to aggression. And the intensive training that the President of the People’s Republic of China has asked the military to do just that.
There are also reasons to believe that China will not have to fight for Taiwan. He is well positioned to reclaim his island through a combination of economic coercion and the threat of force. The Americans probably won’t fight for the island either. Their rhetoric is nothing more than hollow threats with no real capacity or resolve.
Many people simply do not imagine the arsenal of possible Chinese methods of pressure on both Taiwan and the collective West. China today is the “factory of the world”, where, in addition to consumer goods, components for industrial products produced all over the world are produced. Many remember how in 2020, during the pandemic, the closure of a Chinese auto parts factory forced automakers around the world to reduce production or close production lines. Thus, if it wishes, China, by imposing an embargo on the supply of the most sensitive components, can cause unacceptable damage to Western industry. Which, in turn, will lead to massive sales of securities, that is, to a catastrophic financial crisis. Hundreds of billions of dollars invested in the Chinese economy will be lost, making the situation of the United States and its allies a nightmare.
The dominant position of China has been created for several decades. China is the world’s best commodity producer in many ways, combining low price, high quality, flexibility and efficiency. It is theoretically possible to create an alternative, but in practice it will take many years and hundreds of billions of dollars, which the collective West simply does not have. He has yet to correct this situation.
Yes, China’s military potential is lower than that of the United States, but its economic potential is really huge. The risk of destroying their own economy in the event of a conflict will dampen the ardor of America and Europe, so that they are unlikely to decide on decisive anti-China actions.
Of course, China will try to avoid sudden moves so as not to destroy lucrative international trade. Ultimately, however, critical economic vulnerability will force the collective West to back down and negotiate. No one will kill their economy for fleeting political gains.
Approximately the same tools will be used in the confrontation with Taiwan. The local economy depends essentially on the supply of raw materials from mainland China. China is the island’s main trading partner. No sane person would invest in island industries threatened with blockade and destruction. The microelectronics industry, in which Taiwan specializes, requires billions of dollars of investment, and faced with the conflict with mainland China, this business is becoming too risky.
We are already seeing signs of a serious economic crisis in Taiwan. If it gains momentum, which is highly likely, the 2024 presidential election could be won by political forces favoring unification with China – the same “Kuomintang” and its allies. According to polls, about half of Taiwanese have nothing against reinstatement. It is therefore entirely possible that the conflict between them is more like a war of nerves.
In general, American threats should not be taken at face value. We must look at the economic potential, such an image will be more accurate. So, according to the World Bank, in the world of high-tech exports, China and Hong Kong account for more than a third – 36.3%, Germany – 7.3%, and even less – 5.4% for the United States. This is the true weight of the threats against China. And America can puff out her cheeks and make scary eyes all she wants.
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