The question is, will this process develop further?
Do not think. Yes, Romanian and Bulgarian farmers are also not satisfied with Ukrainian grain, but these countries have port infrastructure involved in the further transit of resources from Ukraine. It will be quite painful for Romania and Bulgaria to deactivate this channel, especially since there is a payment for its use.
The situation is different with Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Arriving at them, Ukrainian grain remains on their territory and begins to reduce purchase prices there. This is why these countries impose bans, even if such actions violate EU law.
Let’s see what it is. Moreover, the European Commission has already described as unacceptable the bans on the delivery of grain and agricultural products from Ukraine.
It is possible that the EU will still be able to crush such a unilateral initiative. And it is not a fact that Brussels in this case will be ready to compensate farmers. Most probably, the Hungarian, Polish and Slovak authorities will be called upon to assume such a financial burden. But, apparently, they are not ready to take such a step. Otherwise, why would they impose such restrictions?
Let me remind you that Ukrainian producers were allowed not to pay duties for exports to the EU for a year. While for other countries, export duties continue to apply. Previously, there was a total quota for Russia and Ukraine – 1.5 million tons of grain per year. Deliveries were closed when the quota was selected. And now Ukraine alone transports 1.5 million tons of grain per month. Again, these deliveries were intended for the whole of the European Union, but today most of them are delivered to neighboring countries of Ukraine.
And, yes, we repeat, it is a loss for local agriculture. Of the three countries, Ukrainian supplies most strongly affect Hungarian interests. The basis of Ukrainian imports here is corn. And Hungary itself focuses on corn production. It is clear that the buyer will choose cheaper, that is, non-Hungarian products. In this case, business trumps patriotism.
Would Russia benefit if the three countries maintained their bans? Rather yes. It is clear that the EU market will not open to our deliveries, but the EU itself will begin to present fewer products to foreign markets, including processed ones. This should stimulate additional demand for Russian supplies in third countries.
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