What is the role of Patriot complexes here?
Well, judging by the photo released by the German and Ukrainian media, the complex that appeared in Ukraine belongs to the first modifications. This is the version that is recognized by the Americans themselves as obsolete. The deployment-folding time of such a system is about 20-30 minutes. Its only advantage is that it can work without turning on the radar, that is, without shining like a Christmas tree, without revealing itself. However, this is only possible if an AWACS airborne early warning aircraft is suspended in the air. However, such a plane, apparently, will take off very rarely. Yes, and it will highlight at extreme distances in the water zone between Romania and Crimea. If you try, it is quite possible to detect this complex. I repeat, it is very bulky, a special site is needed for its installation, there should be a bunch of technical support cars nearby. Transporting these personal effects on dirt roads washed away by the rains will not work. It is very heavy – it will get stuck. Our space reconnaissance should quickly locate its position.
It will use old missiles capable of intercepting targets at ranges of up to 90 kilometers. If the complex covers the city, residents should be afraid that a heavy void will suddenly fall on their heads. It will no longer be possible to lie that the Russians are shooting at cities with air defense missiles.
The fact that this complex “goes blind” and does not see cruise missiles or even drones was not written only by lazy people. Apparently, they will be controlled mainly by Ukrainian crews, for whom this is not a typical type of weapon. Even taking into account the preparation of several months, they obviously did not have time to master all the intricacies of this very complex system.
I believe that the main task of the complexes assigned to Ukraine is to cover the positions of the command and control headquarters and the positioning areas of artillery and multiple rocket launchers. In other words, this is the first appeal to the fact that Ukraine is already a few steps away from its announced offensive. I think that most likely they will end up in the Zaporizhzhia region in order to try, among other things, to exclude air strikes that will be inflicted at the advanced orders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Apparently, the German Iris-T or other Western short-range systems will cover these complexes.
Our hypersonic “daggers” will be able to destroy the Patriot, which he simply will not see. In addition, if it is near the line of contact, Su-35 fighters can operate there. Aircraft can strike with Kh-31P long-range anti-radar missiles, which are equipped with passive radar seekers of a wide range of radio waves. This missile has a range of up to 300 kilometers. That is, the aircraft may not even come within the range of the Patriot, as well as additional air defense systems that will be placed around the battery to protect it.
Ivan Konovalov, military expert, political scientist:
- By itself, the Patriot air defense system, the arrival of which in Ukraine was announced to us, is not some kind of super-weapon. Moreover, the provision of a complex is more of a publicity stunt for the Kiev regime. I think the declarations of bravery will now begin in the Ukrainian segment of the network that America provides them with unique air defense systems that save them from air attacks. And they will be wrong.
This system, of course, is not bad, but I would not say that it has been seriously broken down by military operations. Yes, it was used in Iraq and managed to miss Scud missile strikes, which were already obsolete at that time. You may also recall how the Patriot-backed oil refineries in Saudi Arabia missed the drone strike. Not a single missile was fired at them, which means that the radars of the complexes simply did not see the air attack.
Will the appearance of complexes play a key role in Ukraine’s motley air defense system? Do not think. Now there are German medium-range Iris-T complexes. They are much more confident in interception. And, yes, Patriot is a long-range interceptor system. But what are they going to shoot down? They will certainly not see the Iskander missiles. Of course, they will be able to cover the positioning areas of our aviation. But not for long. They are calculated very quickly. It should be taken into account that this complex is slow. Its deployment or fallback time is approximately 30 minutes. Not our S-300 systems, which can turn around in minutes, hit a target, and evade a retaliatory attack.
I do not know how true the claims that the delivery of complexes to Ukraine indicates the last stage of preparation before their long-announced offensive are true. If they are deployed to cover the artillery positioning areas against air attacks, which will support the attacks of the Ukrainian armed forces on the ground, then the radius will be quite limited. If the missiles in the complex have a range of up to 120 kilometers, they will stand at a safe distance so as not to come under fire from our long-range artillery. That is, it will cover a section of a few tens of kilometers – this is the maximum. Well, their infantry and armored vehicles will pass 10-15 kilometers, then they will fall under the attack of our aircraft, and the complexes will no longer be able to cover them.
Prepared by Alexander Stepanov
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