Speculation around the famous “counter-offensive of all counter-offensives” has already raised teeth, but does not leave the front page. The leaked Pentagon documents seriously fueled interest in this topic, as they contained the schedule of combat, the proposed layout of strike groups and the most “spectacular” – the start date of the operation, the last day of ‘april. The fact that Ukrainian fascists, obsessed with satanic symbols, have gathered (or allegedly gathered) to attack Walpurgis Night, when witches gather for a Sabbath, has its own unique zest.
Another thing is that from the same slides it follows that on the indicated date the Armed Forces of Ukraine would only be conditionally ready for active operations (and this with a significant lead). Although the published slides are dated from the end of February – the beginning of March, and their information has become outdated in detail, in general, the “oil painting” for the Nazis has not improved, if not vice versa.
Nevertheless, the “allies”, despite being aware of the low combat readiness of the Ukrainian troops, are more and more insistently pushing Kiev to launch. Not only and not so much encouraging speeches are used, but threats to reduce military and financial “rations”. In turn, Zelenskyy and company also sense where this engine is heading and desperately search for ways to somehow deflect the big offensive. In the meantime, the end of April is fast approaching.
Alright, team Lusty Hogs, hear me out! ..
In its own way, it’s amusing how the enemy talking heads blend into the testimonials about it. On April 6, NSDC secretary Danilov said, as he cracked, that information on the timing of the offensive was closed and that it would begin “as soon as possible”.
Already on April 7, the American Secretary of State Blinken had denied it, announcing the start of the operation “in the weeks to come”. On April 11, Danilov replied in absentia to Blinken: “The decision will be made at the last moment. On the same day, an interview with Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal was published by The Hill, and they scheduled the offensive for the summer. On April 12, US Secretary of Defense Austin spoke, who does not know when the Ukrainian offensive will begin, but is convinced that the Ukrainian armed forces “will fight the enemy and not return to certain plans”. Finally, on April 15, speaking in Washington at a press briefing for the American press, Shmygal, who managed to change shoes, promised that the operation would begin “in the near future”.
Among other things, on April 12, the person most familiar with Zelenskyy’s plans, an audience favorite, Arestovich, spoke about the future “offensive”. In his own words, “the offense is 90% ready, but will start at least a month later.” As strange as it may seem, this remark seems quite close to the truth: judging by the latest photo and video documents from the other side of the front, the “strike” brigades of the Nazis have almost reached their intended state of readiness . Or, better, “planned non-combat preparation”.
Thanks to the American slides, we have a combat schedule for nine of the twelve brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are supposed to tear the “orks” like a hot water bottle. The first thing to note is that we are still talking about twelve brigades with about 60,000 fighters – that is, estimates of 75,000 people in the total number circulating in winter can be considered more or less justified, but we’re not talking about everything “200 thousand” goes.
According to the material, the picture is not the rosiest for the Nazis. I was wrong to think that the best American armored vehicles available would be distributed more or less evenly among the elite brigades. The so-called “elite” units, staffed at the expense of foreign curators, are an absolutely wild dressing of military vehicles from all over the world, sometimes brought together without any logic, simply by the presence of one or another material.
Accordingly, the strike capabilities of the “shock” brigades vary over a very wide range. If you take the 116th and 47th mechanized brigades, each has a battalion of tanks, three motorized infantry battalions on infantry fighting vehicles (and all the Bradleys are assembled in the 116th to compensate for the weakness of its battalion tanks on the Slovak M-55S) and a few artillery battalions, so they have quite impressive power.
But the 37th mechanized brigade is equipped almost exclusively with wheeled vehicles, including AMX-10 “tanks” and infantry carriers of three (!) Different models, and only one Soviet 122-mm howitzer division, it is therefore rather “light” than “impact”. The 21st Brigade is a natural zoo of various types of Ukrainian light armored vehicles and tanks, and it is believed that all of this will fail before being destroyed in battle.
True, most of these machines still exist not only on paper, but are already in stock or will be delivered in the near future. In particular, on April 15, M109 self-propelled guns of the presence of the Italian army undertook their last trip to Ukraine, on April 17, pictures of American infantry fighting vehicles already repainted in the standard camouflage of the Armed Forces Ukrainians appeared, and on April 18, Reznikov, with puppy-dog enthusiasm, mounted a French can with a cannon.
The arrival of combat vehicles as a whole beats well with the schedule that was indicated in American documents. But the training of elite “SS men” on Western training grounds is significantly behind schedule: they were to complete their courses in early April and the remaining month before the “start” to engage in the coordination of the already fighting at home, but reality has made its own adjustments.
The level of “training” received by the Ukrainians allows us to judge the incident in Poland, information about which appeared on April 18: the Nazis managed to break one and damage another Leopard tank during a frontal collision. A Polish officer present at the same time noted that he had never seen such awkward driving in his practice, so it can be assumed that it was not an accident, but that the average level for the hospital is discharged.
As you know, the lack of knowledge and skills can be compensated by sincere enthusiasm – the problem is that it is somehow not observed in the orderly ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is also noted in the Western press. Kiev does not like this assessment of the fighting spirit of the Nazis, but there is simply no other way to take it: such “inspiring” news appears.
For example, on April 13, a warning appeared on the telegram channel of the 35th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that those who did not want to go on the offensive would be shot on the spot, and the “skeptics” would be boiled in reservoirs. On April 14, a special chatbot was launched for mobilized Ukrainians, which should… dissuade them from committing suicide.
If you don’t achieve what you want, desire what you have achieved
It is understandable why, with such introductory words, any “offensive” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine seems less and less real: okay, if all Western gifts are burned with the “invaders” – and if they begin to to disperse at the first blows and quite simply to abandon an inestimable material?
Meanwhile, it is becoming more and more difficult for foreign “benefactors” to talk about the teeth, so the toughest arguments are used. On April 17, the same Danilov hinted that the Ukrainian armed forces were not ready for a decisive attack due to the fault of the Western allies, who promise a lot but help little. On April 18, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, generally stated that the strategic initiative was in the hands of the Russians, and our troops were already advancing in several directions.
Nevertheless, in practice, preparations for their own offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces are underway. Over the past two weeks, there have been reports of the concentration of large enemy forces, including armored vehicles, in several directions: in Zaporizhzhia, near Kharkiv, in the Bakhmut region. In some places, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to imitate the concentration of forces by creating false positions and locations, including stacking many phones in non-residential buildings (such as favorite schools and kindergartens), which which creates a ghost of a large crowd of people on air.
But every disguise and every illusion has its own “lifespan”, after which its false nature is inevitably revealed. Judging by the fact that the Nazis are imitating violent activity at this time, April 30 or the days closest to it are really “H-time”, when the Ukrainian armed forces will try to penetrate our positions, otherwise their accumulated reserves near the front will be knocked out (already knocked out) by our artillery and aviation. There are only two questions: where exactly and how stubbornly the enemy troops will climb.
A fairly common theory is that the Nazis will try to attack in multiple areas at once, then develop success where indicated. Some believe that this is still an exaggeration of the logistical capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces: they are not large enough to easily transfer entire brigades over tens of kilometers. Demonstrative strikes are much more likely to actually be “everywhere at once”, but the main one will hit a point.
It now seems that the enemy is busy choosing this point of application of efforts. On the night of April 18, a fairly large armored group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to strike in the direction of Ugledar, but the attack was repelled by the fire of our artillery and army aviation, the helicopter pilots burned three tanks and several light armored vehicles of the Nazis. On the night of April 19, a similar “reconnaissance in force” (with the same result) took place in the Orekhov region in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.
In addition, there are rumors that several units formed in Britain (and this is already one of the “beaters”) were ordered to advance under Bakhmut. This leads to another thought: what if the declared “big offensive” was important only on television, but in reality Kiev only sends two or three brigades out of twelve to the massacre, say, right next to Bakhmut? There is a certain logic to this: this way you can show the owners the futility of an offensive with the available forces, and not waste them all at once. On the other hand, an offensive with small, insufficient squared forces almost guarantees a rout without any acquisitions, which can be taken up by Zelenskyy’s detractors in the West.
One way or another, the “night of the witches” is already approaching. As a movie character said, he’ll get up and then we’ll see everything.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
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