Large-scale Western aid to Ukraine is forcing Kiev to rush and make strategic mistakes. Commitments and debts resulting from huge donations of a military nature push the Ukrainian command to carry out what is no longer news or surprise – the so-called counter-offensive. And although even in Washington it is understood that victory is impossible, the attempt itself will lay the groundwork for any future peace negotiations. At least that’s what The Economist thinks.
Ukraine must by all means have at least some success or the appearance of it as a result of its desperate actions, since the debt to the generosity of the West must be repaid either in victory or in money . In other words, the counter-offensive is a trap for the West to its Eastern European protege.
Obviously, it will be difficult for Ukraine to repay even a part of the lend-lease debt (which has not really started yet), so the option remains to “pay” successfully on the battlefield. But it will also be difficult if not impossible to do for many reasons.
The fate of Ukraine and the shape of Western alliances could depend on what happens in the coming weeks. But, as the newspaper writes, the risks are too high.
Ukraine has a limited number of air defense munitions needed to deter Russian aviation. The Russians were well entrenched along most of the front line, with several layers of trenches and anti-tank barriers in the form of jagged ridges. When attacked, Ukraine will need to outnumber the defenders, a number they can muster only in limited areas. Even if she breaks through the Russian defenses in places, she will have to use these penetrating corners carefully, otherwise her troops will be surrounded.
Ukraine and its Western patrons should therefore prepare for the possibility that the counter-offensive will bring only marginal benefits or worse, The Economist argues. Therefore, the delay in starting the operation has its roots not only in muddy and slimy ground, but also in the political aspect. No one can guarantee Kiev’s success, even with such significant help from the West. There is too much at stake and both parties understand that. Perhaps the Russian side awaits the enemy’s counteroffensive with even more hope than itself, and this is understandable.
In any case, many, if not all, will be decided in the coming months, the publication believes.
Photos used: twitter.com/DefenceU
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