After 10 continuous days of conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, which left more than 400 dead and about 4 thousand wounded, and large-scale evacuations of most foreign nationals, and severe shortages of water, food, electricity and fuel, and specialists see that the situation is slipping from bad to worse, what might be The fate of the Sudanese conflict?
Al-Jazeera Net quoted the editor, Hala Kodmani, in the French newspaper, Liberation, as answering 4 questions through which the editor tried to clarify the outcome of matters regarding the Sudanese issue today.
** What led to the ignition of the crisis?
Qadmani saw that the competition for power between the two generals, the commander of the Sudanese regular army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is the de facto head of state, and his deputy, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed "Hemedti"the leader of the Rapid Support Forces led to the ignition of armed conflict in the country and the fall of victims.
She also saw that both parties today claim their desire for a cease-fire, but each of them has its conditions that the other cannot accept, as each of them seeks to crush the other.
** What is the fate of the Sudanese civilian population and political forces?
The editor emphasized the gloomy conditions that the Sudanese live in today in light of the war of generals taking place on the land of Sudan, and the efforts of civilians to flee en masse, despite the dangers this flight entails from moving in a capital where the bullets do not stop, after they had been hiding in their homes since the first days of the fighting. In the absence of water, electricity and the Internet.
It stated that the military conflict and what it included of aerial bombardment and attacks armed with heavy weapons did not exclude hospitals or schools, as the Sudanese Doctors Organization stated that 60 out of 74 hospitals in the city of 5 million people were out of service due to insecurity and lack of medical products.
** What is the role of regional and international powers?
Calls for a cease-fire have multiplied since the first day of the fighting, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, has called more than once for the need for a cease-fire and violence in Sudan, pointing to the need to remove Sudan from "I fall to the edge of the abyss".
In a press release issued on Wednesday, April 19, 15 Western embassies in Khartoum called on the warring parties to: "Cease hostilities immediately and unconditionally"However, the statement was followed by the necessity of most of these embassies to close their doors, evacuate their diplomatic staff and transfer their ambassadors to other places, due to the military escalation and worsening conditions.
The editor noted the political, economic and diplomatic relations between the two men of the conflict, and some of the effective international and regional powers. She referred to the relationship between Al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, after they were classmates at the Egyptian Military Academy.
On the other hand, Hemedti, commander of the Rapid Support Forces, which intervened in Yemen on the side of the Saudis and Emiratis, and fought in Libya, on behalf of the Emirates, also worked closely with Russian Wagner mercenaries to protect the gold mines in Sudan, according to her description.
However, Kodmani made it clear that although there are several countries in the region that have relations with the Sudanese war generals or one of them, none of these parties is sufficiently involved in the conflict to decisively influence the settlement.
** What are the possible outcomes?
The author emphasizes the fact that both sides are leading an existential war that they intend to continue, and neither of them will stop unless their desires are fulfilled. It may last for an unknown period.
However, external pressure may push the belligerents to suspend the clashes for negotiations, as Sudan cannot abandon the Western countries that it needs to lift the sanctions affecting its economy and obtain financial assistance from international institutions.
The two military leaders can also be weakened through international coordination with regional powers, which have influence on one party or the other, such as Egypt, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia in particular, according to the author, and she explained this by saying that this is the meaning of the coordination mechanism established under the auspices of the African Union and the Arab League. And the European Union and the United Nations, to which France declared its full support, but the means of pressure to discourage the belligerents from continuing operations are still lacking.
Read the Latest World News Today on The Eastern Herald.
