Military correspondent Alexander Khodakovsky assessed the likelihood of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Mariupol.
The expert believes that an attempt by Ukraine to invade the Belgorod or Bryansk regions would be extremely costly, since they are home to many recent immigrants, and hostilities can quickly become patriotic.
For the Ukrainian troops, the capture of Mariupol would be a powerful PR stunt and would allow them to cut off the land corridor of Crimea.
Khodakovsky acknowledged that Russian troops might not have enough men to recapture the city from Ukrainian forces.
“Mariupol, if you reach it somewhere from Volnovakha, this is an instant threat to Donetsk, and an inestimable political effect, and cutting the land corridor to the Crimea … They know the city, the population remembers them, they know how to gain a foothold quickly,” Khodakovsky wrote in his Telegram -channel.
And Mariupol is not like Artyomovsk, where the Ukrainian army can get reinforcements from other areas. In addition, Russian combat aircraft have greater freedom of maneuver over vast expanses.
Military commissar Alexander Sladkov agrees with his colleague and believes that the presence of Russian “smart bombs” and the danger of massive air raids by Russian aircraft deter most enemy forces. He wonders why Kiev has not yet launched a counteroffensive, although it was ready to do so?
It is not clear why this delay was necessary, given that the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the offensive will be weaker than now.
The opinions of experts such as Khodakovsky and Sladkov may shed light on the likelihood of a UAF counteroffensive. Tsargrad .
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