In its report on growth prospects for the Middle East and North Africa, the fund indicated that the growth of the economies of the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to slow significantly this year, for to reach 3.1% and 3.4% next year, compared to growth of 5.3% in 2022, for several years, in particular the restrictive measures taken by countries to combat sharp increases in inflation rates , unprecedented interest rate hikes and the lingering fallout from the Ukraine crisis.
For Egypt, estimates indicate a slowdown in growth from 6.6% in 2022 to 3.7% in 2023 due to tight financing conditions and the devaluation of the pound in the previous period, in addition high inflation which will lead to the erosion of household purchasing power. and weak growth in external demand.
The International Monetary Fund has revised a 0.3 percentage point increase in growth in the Middle East and North Africa region last year in 2022 to 5.3% from October estimates. , due to the strong economic performance of oil-exporting countries (especially the Gulf economies) and Egypt.
However, the Fund warned of significant declines in the pace of growth due to lower oil production in the Gulf states, in line with voluntary cuts announced by OPEC Plus countries, despite its assertion that which oil-producing countries will greatly benefit from high commodity prices and allow them to continue to build up its financial reserves.
The Fund also expected real GDP growth in oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa region to slow from 5.7% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023. , with this pace generally continuing into 2024, due to oil production cuts. which have been agreed.
The IMF, despite the warning messages it sent to a number of countries, including Egypt, on the need to continue to fight inflation and adopt a flexible exchange rate to protect the economy from external shocks, however, reaffirmed that the economic conditions of the countries of the region are still much better than the average world growth, with the support of the reforms adopted by the governments and the solidity of the financial sector, which has managed to withstand the crises from Corona and Ukraine
IMF expectations showed that Morocco will achieve faster growth this year, due to the recovery of the agricultural sector after a severe drought in 2022, while growth remains weak in the non-agricultural sector.
The fund said: “The pace of growth is expected to pick up gradually in emerging and middle-income economies in the region (Middle East and North Africa) in 2024, to 4.4%.
The Fund warned of worsening food insecurity and increasing poverty in low-income fragile countries due to prolonged droughts and the cost of living crisis.
inflation rate
Recent estimates from the International Monetary Fund indicate that inflationary pressures in the Middle East and North Africa will last longer than predicted last October.
“Inflation will remain unchanged at 14.8% in 2023, from 14.8% in 2022, and then decline to around 11% in 2024, an increase of 2.5 percentage points for both years compared to the forecast of ‘October,’ the fund said.
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