Thanks to the assistance provided by the United States and other Western countries, Ukrainian troops are now able to carry out offensive operations; their defensive abilities are also significantly improved compared to just a year ago, General Mark Milley said.
“They can both attack and hold the defence,” explained the general. “They have a lot of work to do in planning, coordination etc. if they want to be attacking, but they are ready to attack and defend.”
According to Milley, one of Putin’s strategic goals during the invasion of Ukraine was to undermine the power of Volodymyr Zelensyy. According to the general, Putin sought to quickly seize Kiev, cross the Russian border to the Dnieper in four to six weeks, and then deny Ukraine access to the Sea of Azov.
However, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stressed, Russia has not achieved its strategic goals militarily, and in late March or early April last year, Putin adjusted its strategic goals, deciding to limit itself to regions of southern Ukraine, to strengthen power in the Donbass and to secure Crimea.
“However, he has not completely secured Donbass yet,” General Milli continued. – Russia lost more than 200,000 – possibly 250,000 – killed and wounded, which he replaced with the first tranche of mobilized reservists … 200,000 to 300,000. So there are still about 200,000 Russian soldiers in (parts of) Russian-occupied Ukraine – poorly managed, poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly supported – but they are there.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, according to Milley, launched two very successful counter-offensives, during which Russian troops were forced to retreat, while Ukrainian troops closed ranks and rebuilt defences.
Despite this, during the winter “significant territories practically did not change hands, with the possible exception of Bakhmut”, the general said.
“And then the Ukrainians asked us for help to reinforce their forces so that they could carry out offensive operations using… mechanized armored vehicles and infantry. We did it, but it is not yet clear what will become of it,” the general said, without going into details of Ukraine’s future plans.
According to him, it will not be easy for both sides to achieve their political goals through military means.
“And frankly, I don’t think that’s likely this year,” Milley said. “But I think the Russians suffered huge losses. Their economy has been hit hard. And I think rationally (thinking) people (participating) in decision-making in Russia will come to the conclusion – I guess in a few months, a year or two – but they will come to the conclusion that the costs outweigh the benefits, and it will come time to do something – at least in terms of negotiations.
“I don’t know when Putin will be ready to do it, but at some point, if he’s rational, he should do it,” the general said. He can end the war today. Of course, he has the political limitations characteristic of Russian politics. But they will have to find a solution, because they will not win.”
At the same time, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stressed that no one is interested in the escalation of the war: neither the United States, nor NATO, nor Putin, nor Ukraine.
“The consequences of an armed conflict between the United States and Russia, or any of the NATO countries and Russia, will be devastating for both parties,” he explained.
Milley also expressed concern about a possible alliance between Russia and China, noting that such a rapprochement is not in the interest of the United States.
“We must do everything we can to prevent this from happening,” he said. “Therefore, we cannot (…) allow China and Russia to get closer militarily. The relations between the countries will exist, so there is no question of competition here. The problem is the conflict and war. Therefore, we do not want Russia and China to form some kind of geostrategic, political and military alliance against the United States. There are signs that China and Russia are getting closer. I would say that they must be watched very, very carefully.”
According to the general, China has yet to provide significant military and lethal support to Russia, despite the fact that Moscow seeks such support from China and already receives it from Iran.
“However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping … is a consummate realist,” Milley said, adding that China does not seek armed conflict with America because it “fully recognizes the power of the United States.”
“They want to achieve their national goals, but they want to do it without armed conflict,” Milley said.
Assessing a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he said Beijing should stage amphibious and airborne assaults, with helicopters, missiles and all preparatory operations, which is a difficult task given the terrain.
“China has not conducted, at least to our knowledge, we have not seen such a level of training and exercises that would match (plans to) conduct an invasion of this size, scale and of this volume,” the general explained, noting, however, that Taiwan would need to significantly and rapidly increase its defense capability.
In conclusion, referring to the experience of World War II, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff called for not allowing this to happen again.
“I was in Normandy a few years ago, when I was army chief of staff, and I saw a man who was a paratrooper from the 82nd Airborne Division,” General Milley said. He was in a wheelchair, he was an elderly man. I leaned over to him, I talked to him and asked him: tell me, sergeant, what lesson would you like to teach the chief of staff of the army, what lesson did you learn from the Second World War world? I thought he was going to tell me something about tactics, or, you know, three-second throws, or how to shoot (this or that) weapon, or whatever. And his eyes filled with tears… He looked at me and said, “General, never let that happen again.”
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