The impact of the cost of political living
During his first ten years in power, Erdogan and his party (the Justice and Development Party) managed to maintain their electoral base, made up mainly of low-income and conservative Turks, by registering strong economic growth.
But the cost of living crisis unleashed by Erdogan’s unorthodox economic program over a period of a year and a half has now eroded his popularity, and he has faced the biggest electoral challenge of his 20 years in power. .
Some opinion polls show Erdogan’s approval rating below that of his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, ahead of the first round of voting scheduled for next Sunday, although the gap has narrowed recently.
The parliamentary race remains uncertain, with the opposition expected to win a narrow majority.
Price increase
“Before, we used to buy three to four bags of groceries for 150 to 200 lira (between 7.7 and 10 dollars),” said Hakim Ekinci, 63, as he stopped to cut a customer’s hair in his living room in Besiktas. (with this amount).”
He added: “I can say that the officials are controlling us. I think it has to do with bad decisions they made. I was a supporter of AKP, but I don’t think to vote for them. .”
Ekinci’s opinions are representative of the millions of Turks who have had to deal with hyperinflation for years.
Big inflation
Food prices rose 54% year-on-year in April, with inflation dropping to 43.7% after peaking at 85.5% in October, the highest level under Erdogan’s rule.
Annual inflation has remained at double digits for nearly five years since the 2018 general election. It began to rise sharply after the currency crisis in late 2021, which was triggered by a series of interest rate cuts in accordance with Erdogan’s unconventional economic policy. .
The Turkish lira lost 44% of its value in 2021 and 30% in 2022. A total of 76% declined during Erdogan’s second presidential term, which saw several currency crises due to unconventional economic policies and geopolitical developments such as the war in Ukraine and differences. between Ankara and Washington.
Words and deeds
The hairdresser is working on his own after having to lay off two employees and said he could not get any bank loans despite falling interest rates as authorities restricted consumer loans to stabilize inflation.
But many pro-AKP voters still believe only Erdogan can fix the economy, or they blame other factors for the current situation.
Halima Doman, a resident of Istanbul, said those who raise prices to make bigger profits are responsible for the high cost of living.
“I swear Erdogan can solve it with a gesture from him,” she said at a market in central Istanbul.
Doman believes that the opposition, including the opposition coalition to which Kilicdaroglu belongs, is only strong on words.
“They’re not taking any action,” she said.
Birol Baskan, a writer and political analyst who is not affiliated with any party, said that even Erdogan’s “fanatic” supporters do not deny that the economy is not doing as well as it did at the start of his time.
He added: “The reason why this party continues to win is that it has provided voters with certain material privileges. This is the first time that this magic seems not to work because of the economy and because of high inflation and high cost of living. .”
“It’s hit people’s finances hard, and that’s why I think winning this election isn’t so guaranteed anymore,” he said.
Some voters are also unconvinced that the opposition will immediately assuage economic concerns.
Talat Gul, a stonemason who never voted for the AKP or its allies, says he sees ‘only hunger’ now, but doubts things will change for the better soon if the opposition wins .
“They have created, over the past 21 years, a Turkey that cannot be changed. It will take 20 years to recover, no matter who comes to power. But I just want him (Erdogan) gone.”
Ekinci has yet to decide which of the three candidates vying with Erdogan will vote for. He said, “(Kilijdaroglu) may be an honest person, but they haven’t announced anything that convinces me.”
“I want the price of the dollar to come down (after the election). I want the price of gas to come down. I want inflation to come down… I want to go back to what my life was like five or six years ago. I want to be able to go out for a walk, to travel outside”.
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