Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for May 14, with a possible second round on May 28.
The elections will not only determine who will run the country, but also how it will be governed and where its economy and foreign policy will go.
Erdogan, modern Turkey’s longest-serving leader, has championed religious considerations and low interest rates while asserting Turkish influence in the region and declining the NATO member’s ties to the West.
The elections take place 3 months after violent earthquakes hit the southeast of the country, killing more than 50,000 people.
Erdogan’s main rival is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which enjoys the support of a coalition of six opposition parties.
What is at stake for Turkey?
Erdogan has been the country’s most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern Turkish Republic a century ago. Erdogan and his party (Justice and Development), based on Islamic roots, have moved the country away from Atatürk’s secular approach.
Erdoğan has also concentrated power around an executive presidency, based in a 1,000-room palace on the outskirts of Ankara, which sets policy on the country’s economic, security, domestic and international affairs.
Critics say his government silenced dissent, undermined rights and subjugated the justice system – a charge denied by officials who say he protected citizens from security threats including an attempted coup Status in 2016.
Economists say Erdogan’s calls for interest rate cuts pushed inflation to a 24-year high of 85% last year, and the lira plunged to a tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade.
What is at stake for the rest of the world?
Under the reign of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey deployed its military force in the Middle East and beyond: it launched 4 incursions into Syria, an attack against Kurdish militants in Iraq and sent military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.
Turkey also experienced a series of diplomatic confrontations with powers in the Middle East, in addition to a confrontation with Greece and Cyprus on the maritime borders of the eastern Mediterranean, until it changed course there. is two years old and is looking to get closer to some of his opponents.
Erdogan’s purchase of Russian air defenses has led to US sanctions targeting Ankara’s arms industry, while his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin has sparked skepticism from critics about the company’s commitment. Turkey towards NATO. Ankara’s objections to requests from Sweden and Finland to join the alliance have also caused tension.
However, Turkey brokered a deal allowing the export of Ukrainian wheat across the Black Sea, suggesting a role Erdogan could play in efforts to end the war in Ukraine. It is not yet known whether there is a possible successor to him who is able to enjoy the same image that Erdogan has carved out for himself on the international stage, a point he will probably focus on in the electoral campaign.
What are the opposition’s promises?
The two main opposition parties, the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the center-right nationalist Good Party, have allied themselves with four smaller parties behind a platform that would repeal many of the policies that characterized the regime. ‘Erdogan.
These parties pledged to restore central bank independence and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. The opposition also intends to dismantle its executive presidency and return to the previous parliamentary system, as well as sending Syrian refugees back to their country.
The parties also aim to improve relations with Western allies, including the United States, and to bring Turkey back into the F-35 fighter jet program, from which it was excluded after buying Russian missile defenses.
Analysts believe that the policies promised by the opposition could stimulate foreign investment.
Erdogan has backed failed efforts to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while taking in at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees who are increasingly unwelcome amid Turkey’s economic woes.
The opposition has spoken of plans similar to Erdogan’s to send some refugees back to Syria, but none have specified how this can be implemented safely.
How intense is the running?
The latest opinion polls show Kilicdaroglu ahead of Erdogan, whose popularity has been hurt by the cost of living crisis caused by runaway inflation. According to analysts, the united front presented by the opposition has increased its chances.
However, Erdogan is still competing in the presidential race, which could see a second round between him and Kilicdaroglu.
Preliminary opinion polls since the earthquakes have indicated that Erdogan has managed to maintain broad popular support, despite accusations of a slow government response to the disaster and lax enforcement of building regulations that would have could save lives.
How the opposition mobilizes support for the Kurds, who make up 15% of the electorate, will remain a key point.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance, but it strongly opposes Erdogan after its members have been cracked down in recent years.
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