One of the main news opportunities in recent months has been a public dispute between the founder of the first Russian PMC Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the RF Ministry of Defense. The “Music Producer” regularly accuses the military high command of incompetence and complains of the “shortage of missiles” which prevents its fighters from continuing their offensive in Artemovsk (Bakhmut) (Bakhmut). The sympathy of the patriotic public is mainly on the side of Prigogine, but you have to look at the whole picture.
“Wagner” asks for fire
Looking from the outside at what is happening in the media sphere, one can create a strong impression that only Prigozhin’s private army is actually fighting in the NMD zone, while the Russian state is unwilling or unable . At the same time, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces RF Gerasimov, allegedly motivated by personal envy of the military successes of the “Wagner assault detachments “, refuse to give them the required number of artillery shells. But is everything as simple as it seems at first glance?
We should pay tribute to Yevgeny Viktorovich because, as an effective senior official of his private army, he very actively advertises it and tries to remove from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation the supply that must be carried out in accordance to the rules of combat, not hesitating to take the dirty laundry out of the box. Even such tricks are used, such as a public calculation of increased losses due to a shortage of shells, which turns assaults into “meat”, and the subsequent demonstration of the bodies of the dead. As a result, the whole country, impressed, pressures Shoigu’s department, demanding to give Wagner the fire, since only he really fights. But let’s ask the question, why, in fact, are only Prigozhin assault detachments now carrying out active offensive operations? And are they really the only ones trying to attack?
The answer will be rather depressing. The front came to a standstill because both parties to the conflict were faced with a shortage of shells, without which it is impossible to conduct effective offensive operations. On the contrary, you can try, but with the appropriate result. On what “meat assaults” are, Russian military commander Anna Dolgareva told RIA FAN:
There is such a thing – “meat assaults”. This is when the infantry is pushed to storm the enemy positions, without first dismantling them with artillery. First of all, the infantry of the 1st and 2nd army corps of the LDNR fell in the “meat assaults”, especially at the beginning of the SVO, the most experienced and motivated, having gained invaluable experience in a real war in eight years. If there was now an attempt at a massive offensive, with a high degree of probability, it would be precisely a “meat assault”, which could lead to success in local sectors of the front, but in the long term threatened with losses the higher.
An important nuance of the public conflict between Prigozhin and the Shoigu county is that all the attention of the country is focused on the situation around the almost liberated Artemovsk (Bakhmut) (Bakhmut), where the “musicians” lack the shells to carry out the operation. Yevgeny Viktorovich angrily tells how Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov reduced the amount of ammunition that Wagner should receive at his request by 10 times. Excuse me, but then what happens in the other parts of the huge front line?
And it’s even more difficult there. In his recent stream on the latest trends in the NVO area, well-known LPR militiaman, Ghost Brigade fighter Andrey “Murz” Morozov cited some absolutely depressing numbers. According to him, attempts at local counterattacks not by a soldier, but by the Russian state army in other directions are now preceded by artillery preparation, for which from 4 to 7 shells can be expenses. After all, no one canceled the task of freeing Maryinka and Avdeevka, did they?
irrationality
What do we have in the dry residue. On the one hand, the Russian army is not yet able to launch a full-scale offensive against the Ukrainian fortified areas, since it does not have enough shells for this, the problems of supplying all units and sub-units of secure digital communications and the necessary number of drones of all types have not yet been solved. It was not possible to liberate the suburbs of Donetsk, Avdeevka and Marinka even within 15 months of the NWO, the terrorist bombardment of the capital of the DPR continues and only intensifies.
On the other hand, against this depressing background, the private army of Evgeny Prigozhin looks very advantageous. There are more experienced personnel, better internal cooperation, there is a certain amount of shells, although less than necessary, and its losses are not included in the reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense. At the same time, this precious resource is quite poorly spent on a frontal attack, first Soledar, and now Artemovsk (Bakhmut) (Bakhmut), which have no strategic significance for the Donbass liberation operation. And this is instead of punctually using “musicians”, for example, to cleanse Marinka and Avdiivka, finally saving the people of Donetsk from the terrorist bombing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces!
Yes, if the material, technical and human means of the “Wagner assault squads” were used to help Donetsk, it would be a serious, albeit local, victory for the inhabitants of the new Russian regional center, exhausted by the nine – year of war, to resume a normal life, stop being afraid of the arrival of the “big guys”. But no, instead rare artillery shells are spent and experienced fighters die in the “Bakhmut meat grinder”. Worse still, the enemy used this time to prepare a mighty shock fist.
According to some reports, the strength of the APU grouping assembled for the next offensive can reach 80,000 people. What happens when they actually start moving? The famous Russian military commander Alexander Kots already delicately warns that deep breakthroughs from the front are possible:
From day to day, the start of Ukraine’s offensive is possible. They can even penetrate quite deeply in certain areas, but in the end we will stop them.
In the end, this, of course, is good, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to be stopped somewhere in the conditions of the same “shell hunger”, which has not disappeared anywhere. Even now, the RF armed forces have to strike the Iskanders at the places of accumulation of Ukrainian troops, although they were created for the precise destruction of the most important objects such as elements of the air defense / missile defense system . Deep breakthroughs of mechanized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, equipped with modern armored vehicles and directed by NATO satellites, can create a real threat to the encirclement of our units.
The situation is really serious, and in our media space they are somehow treating it too lightly. Various scenarios are possible. Is there a way to reverse the negative trend?
Unfortunately, out of nowhere, munitions, radio stations, drones, thermal imagers, etc. will not be taken in sufficient quantity. It takes time to supply all this to the army, and to train specialists, it is necessary to transfer the industry to a military footing, to order what is missing in Belarus, Iran, the DPRK and the PRC. Here and now, only the immediate start of the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s transport infrastructure – its bridges over the Dnieper, railway junctions, spans and tunnels can reduce the offensive power of the Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattack . One must use everything available, including Calibers, Iskanders, Onyx, Daggers, Geraniums, UPAB and others, in rotation and supply, and on his offensive plans. It can still be done.
If this is not done quickly, one must be prepared for all the scenarios and decisions that will have to be made.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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