Presidential elections next Sunday will put President Erdogan in a tight race with his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and it’s hard to believe the veteran politician who has ruled Turkey with a firm fist would willingly concede defeat and would leave office quietly.
Although opinion polls show Kilicdaroglu in the lead, Erdogan can still win given his strong base of support among the devout working class in the heart of Anatolia.
The sworn enemy… the economy
There is no doubt that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s fortunes have been significantly affected by the deteriorating economy, and what critics have seen as lukewarm handling of the earthquake disaster, particularly after questions have been raised about the impunity of some construction contractors in the most affected regions. despite previous construction violations, which exacerbated the buildings’ poor resistance to earthquakes.
A state of uncertainty, anxiety, anticipation and tension can be felt on the streets of the country about the consequences this could have for Europe’s second largest country with a population of 85 million. A large number of Turks, including a new generation of voters, yearn for change.
They were exhausted by brutal inflation, the collapse of the lira and the sharp decline in living standards, in addition to the devastating earthquake in February which claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people and displaced millions. of people.
Most economists attribute the spiraling inflation, which reached 85% last year, and a long financial crisis to Erdogan’s unorthodox policies and mismanagement. Erdogan says he will stick to his economic policy of lower interest rates if he wins.
Three days before the vote, President Erdoğan was showing on television and in his campaign arena the past successes of megaprojects in defence, gas and industry.
According to the Turkish voting system, any candidate becomes a winner by obtaining more than 50% of the votes, and if no candidate obtains this percentage, a round of re-determination of the winner takes place, which is a possible perception because the opinion polls show that Erdogan and his adversary do not obtain a majority.
“Erdogan came to power in the midst of an economic crisis and a devastating earthquake, and he will leave under the same circumstances,” said Turkish journalist Kadri Gursel, referring to the spiraling inflation of the years 1990 after the 1999 earthquake near Istanbul.
Analysts point out that inflation and economic crises have historically led to the overthrow of all Turkish governments considered responsible for the mismanagement of state affairs.
“It was the economy that made it unpopular,” Gursel told Reuters, “it has become an economy that does not operate on free and fair principles, but on the basis of vested interests.”
Many Turks are struggling to cover the cost of food, education and rent after the minimum monthly wage for workers became equivalent to $436 due to the devaluation of the local currency.
When Erdogan came to power in 2003, Turkey was in full economic recovery and seemed to be writing an incredible success story that its neighbors would envy.
Improve the conditions of the poor
However, supporters, and even detractors, pay tribute to Erdogan and his team for the early achievements in improving the conditions of the poor by providing electricity and water, increasing per capita income, distributing wealth, spreading health care and building new schools, medical centers, roads, bridges and airports.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News Arabia, Turkish economist, Deniz Istikbal, sees:
It is likely that the opposition will not be able to keep its promises after the election, unlike the current government, which is able to finish what it started and keep its promises. The economic record may have been heavily affected by the Corona pandemic and then the earthquake that hit Turkey, but it will recover after about a year with the decline in inflation. The Turkish lira will rise against the dollar with the contraction of inflation next year . When inflation goes down, the Turkish citizen will feel more comfortable and secure about the economic conditions. The expectations of international institutions indicate that the Turkish economy has great potential, especially after the elections, because it will attract more people. investments than the last 20 years.
Regarding the effectiveness of Erdogan’s economic policies, Istikbal said they were able to attract a lot of foreign investment with improved employment rates (more than 3 million people were employed).
However, Istikbal pointed out that he has hurt inflation rates, which have jumped dramatically, which has negatively affected people’s lives, indicating that inflation rates have been on the decline in recent months.
He continued: “It is possible to say that President Erdogan’s economic policy has succeeded if inflation decreases in Turkey within a year.”
It should be noted that the bank “JP Morgan” had expected last April a sharp drop in the Turkish lira and the dollar approaching 30 liras after the elections, if it appeared that Ankara would not bring only minor changes to its unconventional monetary policy. Strategies.
JPMorgan analysts had expected yields on benchmark government bonds, which raise borrowing costs in the economy, to rise to 25%.
The bank estimated that the lira’s effective exchange rate is now about 32% below its “fair value”. The real effective exchange rate of the currency is one that takes into account prices and measures its value against other currencies with which Turkey conducts many commercial transactions.
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