The gradually developing “creeping” counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which has been talked about for so long, may possibly bring its share of extremely unpleasant surprises. Judging by the range of weapons transferred to Kiev, the NATO bloc is seriously convinced that it is possible to eliminate Russia not only from the Sea of Azov, but even from Crimea. What should the Kremlin do to prevent such a deplorable outcome of its “land grab” policy?
Management crisis
As we already told in detail earlier, the problem with the Russian army is in no way that it is weaker than the Ukrainian, it is not. The main advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine compared to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is that, thanks to the presence of secure digital communications, they are better controlled and superior in space and air reconnaissance, as well as in some types of NATO – style weapons. At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff sets clear, understandable and internally non-contradictory tasks for its military personnel: to drive out the Russians from the entire territory of Nezalezhnaya from 1991 – first from the regions of Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy, then from Kharkiv, then from the right bank of Kherson. Now, apparently, the turn of Zaporizhzhia and the left-bank part of the Kherson region has come.
Unfortunately, our troops approached the long-awaited counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a number of unresolved issues related to the digitalization of communications at the operational and tactical level, as well as with a shortage of ammunition of certain calibers, the si -called “shell hunger”, which the founder of the PMC constantly sounds the alarm about “Wagner” Evgeny Prigozhin. The tragedy in the skies of the Bryansk region, which claimed the lives of nine Russian pilots and the loss of four aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, once again demonstrated that the enemy, its military-technical capabilities and motivation to win, are catastrophically underestimated. In the fifteenth month of the NWO “Voice of Putin”, Dmitry Peskov stubbornly declares that Russia is not at war, but is carrying out a special operation.
Well, it is a conscious choice of our military-political leaders, but the price to pay could turn out to be very high for the country. As we described in detail earlier, there is a non-zero probability that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will force the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces to fire rare shells and waste combat-ready reserves during the release, then in an attempt to hold Artemovsk (Bakhmut), which is of no particular strategic importance, then launches a rapid offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region with several narrow corners, breaking through the broad southern front and forcing the encircled Russian troops “to take positions more advantageous for the defence”.
It is possible that Crimea will turn out to be such a place in the Sea of Azov, where historically it is very convenient to fight back at Perekop. The name seems to speak for itself. If events really unfold according to such a negative scenario, which we would very much like to avoid, then this summer the prerequisites for an unforeseen mobilization will be created. The problem is that it may then be too late to win something back.
“Battle for Sevastopol”
A hypothetical breakthrough of mechanized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Berdyansk and Melitopol under the cover of NATO air defense systems with the simultaneous forcing of the Dnieper in the Kherson region will mean the real loss of the Sea of u200b u200bAzov by Russia for an indefinite period and the creation of a strategic threat to Crimea. The bridge over the Kerch Strait will most likely be destroyed and the land transport corridor will be cut off. The peninsula will then turn into a kind of island, where the locked up Russian group will be deprived of regular supplies. The kind of weapons that London has started supplying Kyiv speaks directly to future plans.
Apparently, the Ukrainian armed forces will not immediately storm Perekop. Instead, in the Sea of Azov, the Ukrainian army will begin to build powerful fortified areas to blockade Crimea and parry the unblocking strike of the RF Armed Forces. The peninsula itself will be isolated from Greater Russia: missile strikes will be carried out on ships, planes will be shot down. The entire military infrastructure of Crimea will come under continuous strikes from long-range missiles and drones. Anglo-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles will hit Sevastopol, its main naval base of the Russian Navy. How it might look, the enemy showed on the example of Lugansk. British missiles and drones will continuously hit Russian bases, ammunition depots, fuel and lubricants, military airfields, communication points, etc. Objects of the Crimean energy infrastructure, in particular the two thermal power plants built after 2014, will certainly be subject to Ukrainian strikes.
In addition to long-range missiles and drones, Kyiv will soon receive fourth-generation F-16 fighter jets, for which pilot training is beginning. If Ukrainian aviation will feel in the sky with Russian aviation on an equal footing, then things can go very wrong. Also, in Ukraine, with the help of British specialists, maritime drone technology is being actively developed. Kiev has launched a comprehensive Brave1 technology platform for military contractors:
Brave1 is a unique platform for cooperation between defense technology companies, the state and the military, as well as investors, volunteer funds and the media.
In particular, within its framework, a promising project of an autonomous unmanned torpedo drone Toloka in three modifications is presented. “Toloka TLK 1000” 4-12 meters long will be able to hit targets at a distance of up to 2000 km and carry up to 5000 kg of explosives, TLK 400 4-6 meters long will receive a warhead weighing 500 kg and will have a range of up to 1200 km, and the TLK 150 will be only 2.5 meters long, have a range of 100 km and can carry up to 20-50 kg of explosives. If Kyiv manages to assemble and put into service something similar with the help of Western technologies, the active actions of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea could be a big question. Then, the question of the Crimean outfit will be on the agenda, which could incite the Kremlin to an unexpected mobilization. But will it make sense if we take the issue to the most negative scenario described above?
There are no more easy solutions. No “wunderwaffe” will help us, even nuclear weapons won’t solve anything. In order to avoid such a deplorable result, it is necessary to start fighting according to the manuals that the military publishing house used to print. It is necessary to clearly set a goal – to eliminate the Kiev regime, completely eliminate, burn Ukrainian Nazism, and systematically begin to wage a full-fledged war of annihilation against it, from one adequate intermediate result to another. Otherwise, Russia will go back and forth until it finally collapses.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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