The agency said “the current pessimism in the market contrasts sharply with the tighter market balances we expect in the second half of the year as demand is expected to exceed supply by around two million barrels per day.”
The Paris-based agency raised its forecast for global oil demand by 200,000 barrels per day to 102 million barrels per day, noting that China’s recovery from the lifting of restrictions from the Covid-19 pandemic has exceeded expectations, with demand hitting a record high of 16 million barrels per day in March.
Demand from the world’s largest oil importer is expected to account for almost 60% of global demand growth in 2023.
This, added to demand in India and the Middle East, offsets weaker demand in developed countries.
The International Energy Agency said the United States and Brazil will experience moderate growth in oil supply to 1.2 million barrels per day during the year as reductions in OPEC+ alliance agreed in April will mean that production from the group of oil-producing nations will decline by 850,000 barrels per day from then until December. .
Russian oil exports increase
Meanwhile, the Energy Agency report says Russia’s oil exports in April hit their highest level since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, boosting revenue by $1.7 billion. dollars, despite continued Western sanctions.
And the agency said Russian exports rose by fifty thousand barrels a day to 8.3 million barrels a day last month, saying the country had not fully implemented its threat to drastically reduce its production.
“Russia may have increased volumes to compensate for lost revenue,” the organization said in its monthly oil market report.
The country’s oil export revenue rose $1.7 billion to $15 billion in April.
But the figure is 27% lower than that recorded in the same month in 2022.
Russia’s tax revenue from its oil and gas sector fell 64% year-on-year, the agency added.
The International Energy Agency said Russian crude production remained “largely stable” in April at 9.6 million bpd, and the country is expected to cut it by another 300,000 bpd in May.
She explained: “Russia seems to have little trouble finding willing parties to buy its oil and crudes, often at the expense of other OPEC+ members, in a two-tiered market that has emerged since entry into force of the embargo measures”.
The agency said China and India contribute about 80% of Russian crude export destinations.
China’s abandonment of nearly three-year-old Covid restrictions is expected to boost oil demand this year, with the International Energy Agency raising its forecast from 2.2 million barrels per day to an average of 102 million. barrels per day.
This is more than previous expectations of two hundred thousand barrels per day.
And she pointed out that “China’s demand recovery continues to beat expectations, with the country hitting a record high in March,” rising to 16 million barrels per day.
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